Private companies in the US added 978,000 jobs in May, which marked the biggest gain in 11 months and indicated a continued labour market recovery amid the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report. The service-providing sectors added 850,000 jobs in May, the report released on Thursday by the payroll data company Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in collaboration with Moody s Analytics, said. The leisure and hospitality sectors added 440,000 jobs, the education and health services sectors added 139,000, while the trade, transportation and utilities sectors added 118,000, Xinhua news agency quoted the report as saying. The information sector, however, lost 3,000 jobs in the month, it added. Private payrolls showed a marked improvement from recent months and the strongest gain since the early days of the recovery, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
What happened to April payrolls? No one is quite sure.
One possibility is that the BLS seasonal adjustment was far off the mark.The unadjusted Nonfarm Payrolls number was 1.089 million. A seasonal adjustment designed to smooth out recurring monthly swings reduced it to the issued figure of 266,000. These revisions are based on the historical record.
Do assumptions founded in normal seasonal hiring patterns have any predictive value for a time frame as unusual as the past 15 months?
In a normal year summer temporary hiring that might begin in April and May would be discounted as part of long-term employment. This year, a good portion of the more than one million jobs reported in the raw numbers were likely not temporary employment at all but a return to pandemic squelched work. Did the BLS models differentiate between the two putting the rebound in permanent employment in the correct category? Even if the problem was recognized, as it probably was, how can statisticians determi
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