New model predicts SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become endemic and mild
The results of a new model predict that the infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall below that of seasonal influenza (0.1%) once an endemic steady-state is reached.
Image: Usman Yousaf, Unsplash
Another common cold virus?
March 09, 2021
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. What is the endgame for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that is causing worldwide devastation? If it becomes endemic circulating in the general population and most people are exposed in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may join the ranks of mild cold-causing coronaviruses that currently circulate in humans, according to a model developed by Penn State and Emory scientists.
need to be continued. “We expect many cities, regions and countries to have to resort to another round of lockdowns and mandatory social distancing, at least until ‘second generation’ vaccines are available, covering the novel … variants,” analysts at investment bank SVB Leerink wrote to clients last month. In all, about a dozen first-generation vaccines are in use in various countries. But the inoculations are so new that many Americans are hesitant to roll up their sleeves. And crucial questions are still under study: How long does immunity last? Can some vaccinated people like many unvaccinated people get asymptomatic infections and transmit the virus without realizing it? How well do the vaccines work in people with weakened immune systems or chronic illnesses?
Scientists expect COVID-19 will become an endemic disease like the flu or common cold. But as vaccinations increase and natural immunity builds, they expect the coronavirus to spread mostly among children and cause far less severe illnesses.