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BNZ tips OCR to hit 1% by end of the year after record drop in unemployment
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ANZ and BNZ tip OCR to hit 1% by year-end after record drop in unemployment
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It s good news for the economy - but bad news for interest rates
It s good news for the economy - but bad news for interest rates 4 August 2021
A sharp fall in the last quarter has seen unemployment drop to four percent.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says employers are screaming for staff and wages are on the rise - suggesting we re near full employment and need to open our borders.
He believes the Reserve Bank will raise the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points later this month, to half a percent.
NZ and ANZ are both predicting the OCR will go up three times before the end of the year, to one per cent.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr believed the unemployment number “all but confirms a rate hike from the Reserve Bank in August”, describing it as another upside surprise. Statistics NZ senior manager Sean Broughton said the drop in unemployment was largely in line with other labour market indicators, including declining numbers of beneficiaries, rising job vacancies, “and recent media reports of labour shortages and skills mismatches”. The number of people reporting they were “underutilised”, for example because they were working fewer hours than they wanted, also plummeted, falling by 48,000 people or 13.3 per cent over the quarter. Broughton said that big drop showed that spare capacity in the labour market was dwindling and that could lead to upward pressure on wage rates.
The problem with economists forecasts
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