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10.1000 With the risk environment benign next week, EUR/SEK is likely to test the 10.00 level for first time since 1Q18. SEK has been fairly resilient vs EUR during the latest UST sell-off and although the Riksbank is to stay cautious for quarters to come (its forecast for flat rates at zero over the entire forecast horizon provide the case in point), the expected rebound in global and European economy in 2Q is set to benefit SEK, a currency of a small open economy. Domestically, the focus is on February Economic Tendency Survey (Thu), 4Q GDP (Fri) and January retail sales (Fri), but all should have a fairly limited impact on SEK (in the same way the sharp spike in January CPI was also discounted by the market this week). It will be the global environment, not the domestic data, that should push EUR/SEK below the 10.00 level.

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