Weekly Technical Crude Oil Price Forecast: Ignore Short-term Noise - A Multi-Decade Downtrend is Broken Advertisement
Weekly Technical Crude Oil Price Forecast: Neutral
Crude oil prices have been on fire in 2021, and in the process of their run higher, have cleared significant technical resistance. Any setbacks – including this week’s sideways price action – should be viewed in this context.
Even though crude oil futures are hovering near their 52-week high, net-long positioning is not: the 52-week high in positioning came during the week of April 28, 2020, when 589,388 contracts were held.
The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests thatcrude oil prices have a mixed bias in the near-term.
New Zealand Dollar Forecast: The Flying Kiwi? - Setups for NZD/JPY, NZD/USD Advertisement
New Zealand Dollar Outlook:
NZD/USD rates have slipped below their pandemic uptrend, while NZD/JPY rates continue to point higher.
According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the New Zealand Dollar has a bullish bias in the near-term.
New Zealand Dollar Churning
The New Zealand Dollar is closing out the week on mixed footing, down versus four of the major currencies while gaining ground against three (incidentally, the three safe havens). While a risk-on environment has been historically beneficially for the New Zealand Dollar, and the recent change in the RBNZ’s remit makes its monetary posture more hawkish relatively speaking, the Kiwi seems to be plagued be a weakening economic environment in the near-term.
Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update Advertisement
Central Bank Watch Overview:
The Fed is now in its pre-meeting communications blackout period. The FOMC next meets on Wednesday, March 17.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, among other Fed speakers, has been resolutely insisting that the rise in US Treasury yields is nothing to be concerned about – and is, in fact, a sign of economic optimism.
All Quiet at the Eccles Building
In this edition of Central Bank Watch, we’ll review the speeches made in March by various Federal Reserve policymakers. The information drip has run dry in recent days, however, as the Fed is now in its pre-meeting communications blackout period. The FOMC next meets on Wednesday, March 17.
Mexican Peso Forecast at Inflection Point - Levels for MXN/JPY, USD/MXN Advertisement
Mexican Peso Outlook:
Rising US Treasury yields have proved a nuisance to EM FX rates, with USD/MXN breaking through its pandemic downtrend and returning to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its 2020 low/high range.
MXN/JPY rates, however, have proven rather resilient, and have rebounded from their pandemic uptrend and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its 2020 high/low range.
We can use the IG Client Sentiment Index for USD/CAD rates as a close proxy for USD/MXN exposure, which has a mixed bias.
Mexican Peso Hampered by Rising Yields