December 2020 ADP Employment Contracted
ADP reported non-farm private jobs DECLINE of 123,000 which was massively below expectations. A quote from the ADP authors:
The job losses were primarilly concentrated in retail and leisure and hospitality.
Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation
Last month s employment gain was revised marginally downward. It will be interesting to see what the BLS says is jobs growth.
ADP employment has not been a good predictor of BLS non-farm private job growth.
The market expected from Econoday 125,000 to 255,000) - consensus 165,000. These numbers are all seasonally adjusted.
In
Econintersect s December 2020 economic forecast released in late November 2020, we estimated non-farm private payroll growth at 200,000 (based on economic potential) and 500.000 (fudged based on current overrun / under-run of economic potential). [because the decline was so steep and the recovery so steep, our forecast methodology is not accurate in this period]
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