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ConstructConnect-OE’s GDP Projections on the Mark
Government statistical agencies in both the U.S. and Canada have recently been putting the finishing touches to their estimates of gross domestic product growth (or, rather, lack thereof) last year.
The most recent calculation of the U.S. GDP contraction in full year 2020 versus full year 2019 places it at -3.5%. During the quarters of last year, Q2 and Q3 displayed the wildest swings, -31.4% q/q annualized, followed by +33.4% also q/q annualized. The fourth quarter closed out the year with a gain of +4.3%, q/q annualized.
‘Annualized’ means taking the quarter-to-quarter change and projecting it out (or, in other words, assuming it holds true) over a full 12-month period. There’s a compounding aspect, but it generally yields a result not much different from multiplying by four.
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