Myanmar s internal conflicts may heat up unless military gets smart
The civil wars that have roiled the country for 73 years pose both a threat and an opportunity for military leaders
Military vehicles move along a street in Mandalay on Feb. 2 as Myanmar s generals appeared in firm control a day after a surgical coup that saw democracy heroine Aung San Suu Kyi detained. (Photo: AFP)
In the early hours of Feb. 1, when it was apparent that Myanmar’s feared military known as the Tatmadaw was rounding up the country most senior politicians in the first step of a lightning coup, respected historian and author Thant Mynt-U tweeted: “The doors just opened to a very different future. I have a sinking feeling that no one will really be able to control what comes next. And remember Myanmar is a country awash in weapons, with deep divisions across ethnic and religious lines, where millions can barely feed themselves.”
What’s new? Following vote cancellations in conflict-affected areas of Rakhine state during the 8 November general election, Japan has helped broker an informal ceasefire between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army in order to hold supplementary elections. Both sides say they are in favour, but the civilian government is reluctant.
Why does it matter? The initiative has halted almost two years of intense fighting and enabled dialogue to resume for the first time since December 2019. Negotiations over elections could be a stepping stone to a formal ceasefire, but the process remains fragile, particularly without civilian government buy-in.
What should be done? The Arakan Army should release three National League for Democracy candidates it has detained. The civilian government should support elections and – if the Arakan Army lets the captives go – drop its designation as a terrorist organisation. The Tatmadaw should stop insisting that the Arakan Army leave Rakh