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Here we are, then, Tuesday morning 6 July (when I usually write this column) and Zuma’s people are trying to prevent him from being imprisoned after he has been sentenced. There was an “order” of sorts, to arrest him if he failed to present himself to the authorities last Sunday, but he finagled a way of staying out of prison for at least a few more days. We have to wait and see. By the time this column goes to press he may well be in shackles and behind bars. However, my gut feeling and from more than three decades of observing South African politics especially acutely over the past decade or so tells me that Zuma will not be arrested and he may not serve time in prison.

South africaWestern capeUnited statesNorth westKwazulu natalSouth africanChristopher mpofuJulius malemaIsmail lagardienJacob zumaNational house of traditional leadersInternational political economyLondon school of economicsConstitutional courtMagistrate khayelitshaAfrican customary law