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Inflation isn t out of control yet, governor, but can you reassure us it won t be?

Inflation isn’t out of control yet, governor, but can you reassure us it won’t be? © Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Reuters The UK’s annual rate of consumer price inflation was 2.5% in June, we learned last week, up from just 0.7% in March. It has arrived at that point sooner than almost every economist had expected in the spring. Now the forecasters agree 3% is a nailed-on certainty this year, with a few saying 4% will be seen. There is a strong sense of the economy changing quickly. You can see it in the volume of transactions that have driven house prices up by 10% in the year to May, and in reports of staff shortages from pubs, restaurants, haulage companies and housebuilders.

HAMISH MCRAE: The mood darkens on inflation

The central bankers are running scared, and they jolly well should be. The thing that is frightening them is the resurgence of inflation, for they know that if it does not subside soon not only will they have to tighten policy; they will be blamed for not tightening earlier.  Until the last week they could claim that the combination of quantitative easing (QE) and ultra-low interest rates had not only supported the world economy through the downturn but also helped engineer a rapid recovery. The costs had been modest compared with the benefits. There had been quite a bit of asset inflation, including in house prices just about everywhere, but until recently not much current inflation. So they could keep the money taps open. 

Inflation isn t out of control yet, governor, but can you reassure us it won t be? | Inflation

There is a strong sense of the economy changing quickly. You can see it in the volume of transactions that have driven house prices up by 10% in the year to May, and in reports of staff shortages from pubs, restaurants, haulage companies and housebuilders. Some of the inflation was inevitable, and some is easily explained. Consumers were bound to spend more freely after lockdown and no one can be surprised that companies are trying to catch up on lost trade, including by pushing up prices. The whoosh in the housing market is partly down to the rush to beat the return of stamp duty. And blockages in global supply chains, particularly for computer chips for new vehicles, have contributed to a surge in prices of secondhand cars.

Sunak faces £10bn blow from surging inflation

Sunak faces £10bn blow from surging inflation
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HAMISH MCRAE: The mood darkens on inflation

HAMISH MCRAE: The mood darkens on inflation
thisismoney.co.uk - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from thisismoney.co.uk Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

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