Inflation: Will 1970s history repeat itself?
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Inflation, in short, is likely to rise. Will that mean above-5% inflation for several years, as in the 1970s? Bell bottoms are more likely to come back
(Photo: Bloomberg)
Ramesh Ponnuru
, Bloomberg
The bad news is that the worriers might be right that macroeconomic policy is too loose, posing too great a risk of high inflation. Here, though, let’s linger on the good news, which is that reliving the 1970s remains unlikely
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Inflation exceeded 5% a year each year from 1973 to 1982. It hit double digits for three years in a row from 1979 to 1981. The US hasn’t seen such rapid price increases since then. But a recent spike in prices, coupled with large budget deficits and a Federal Reserve aiming for higher inflation, has brought forth worries that the bad old days might be here again.
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