Tradition tells us that, come the midterms, the presidentâs party loses seats in the House. If this tradition holds in 2022, that could be bad news for Democrats, whose House majority now stands at only nine seats.
But history of late doesnât seem to be commandeering the driverâs seat. Right after Joe Biden turned Georgia blue, Politico confidently stated that to win the stateâs two Senate runoffs on Jan. 5, âthe Democratic Party will have to defy a long track record of failure in overtime elections.â So everyone believed, Democrats included. âEveryoneâ was wrong.
Special elections tend to produce low turnout, and former president Donald Trump wasnât on the ballot to motivate Democrats to show up. But while Trump wasnât on the ballot, he was in votersâ heads. Democrats took both seats.
Froma Harrop: The 2022 midterms might surprise us
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