Abstract
After a period of about two years with fairly steady price increases and persistently low volatility, global stock markets experienced a notable price and volatility correction in early February 2018. Before this correction, policy authorities had become concerned about the benign volatility conditions, since low volatility may lead market participants to take on excessive risk and
thereby create risks to financial stability (the “volatility paradox”). Against this background, a return to conditions of higher volatility could, on the one hand, be regarded as a welcome normalisation. On the other hand, a “disorderly” stock market correction with sharp price declines and large price fluctuations might itself pose risks to financial and economic stability.
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GC3 Announces European Innovators Forum to Advance Safer, More Sustainable Chemicals
Industry leaders, regulators, and GC3 will collaborate to strategize chemical innovation under new EU plan.
LOWELL, Mass., May 4, 2021 /PRNewswire/ The Green Chemistry & Commerce Council (GC3) announced its first European Innovators Forum, to be held virtually from May 18 to 27, 2021, hosted by Kingfisher plc. The forum will focus on commercializing safer, more sustainable chemicals across a number of industrial sectors, in the context of the European Union s new Chemical Strategy for Sustainability. That strategy is a part of the larger European Green Deal to achieve a climate-neutral EU
by 2050 through a sustainable economy.
Abstract
We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly available quarterly dataset of fiscal variables for the period 1981-2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro area countries and the US, we use a standard structural VAR framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net taxes shocks. In addition, to frame euro area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the provided results to the inclusion of variables aiming at measuring “financial stress” (increases in risk) and “fiscal stress” (sustainability concerns). Analysing US and euro area data with a common methodology provides some interesting insights on the interpretation of fiscal policy shocks.
Abstract
We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the role of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) to forecast euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman filter allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find that surveys and financial data contain important information beyond the monthly real activity measures for the GDP forecasts. However, this is discovered only, if their more timely publication is properly taken into account. Differences in publication lags play a very important role and should be considered in forecast evaluation.
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