February 21, 2021
As a rule, teams tend to be less aggressive, and take fewer chances, when behind in games. The logic is sound, but at the same time, is it really necessary? Is there not often something to gain by pushing the envelope and putting pressure on the opposing side, regardless of the score? I asked that question to Derek Shelton earlier this week.
“I think it’s game-situational,” the Pirates manager replied. “The question I would [throw] back to you this is rhetorical, of course is ‘What’s the variation in terms of number of runs when you start to take chances, or don’t take chances?’ If it’s three or less, you probably have a greater chance of being aggressive. If you get to the point where you’re at four-plus, you have to be very careful… because the risk-reward may not play out.”
The Hit Probability of Gonzo’s Little Blooper
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In an ordinary baseball game, a bloop hit is a fun anomaly, a nuisance to the defense. The batter might smirk knowing that he lucked into a hit, while the pitcher stands annoyed, knowing he got the exact contact he wanted and couldn’t get an out.
In 2001, Luis Gonzalez hit what is perhaps the most famous and unordinary bloop hit in MLB history:
With the weak contact of Gonzo’s hit, I have wondered: what was the probability of a batted ball like that landing for a hit? Were the Diamondbacks supremely “lucky,” or do balls like that land for hits every time?
January 22, 2021
Hey there! I want to give you a heads up about this article, because it doesn’t fit into a normal genre I write. Today, I won’t be telling you some new insight about a player you like, or creating some new nonsense statistic that tries to pull meaning from noise. This is a story about how baseball analysis is changing right before our eyes. A group of scientists and baseball thinkers are redefining the way we think about pitch movement, and I think it’s worth highlighting even if I don’t have anything to add to the conversation yet, because this new avenue of research is going to be front and center in Statcast-based analysis over the next few years.