“Fools, as it has long been said, are indeed separated, soon or eventually, from their money. So, alas, are those who, responding to a general mood of optimism, are captured by a sense of their own financial acumen. Thus it has been for centuries; thus in the long future it will also be.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria
The signs of an epic bubble of historic proportions are everywhere. The stock market is a bubble, with valuations exceeding 2001. Margin debt is at all-time highs. The bond market is a bubble, with the Fed artificially suppressing rates and pumping trillions of QE into Wall Street. Housing is experiencing another bubble, with prices now far exceeding the 2005 peak. Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto-currencies are a bubble, being driven by the excess liquidity sloshing around the system. A joke crypto currency like Dogecoin soars into the stratosphere because money has no meaning anymore.
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Was Q1 only the start of herd mentality in the market?
By Julian Koski, CIO at New Age Alpha
In his 2004 bestseller The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki famously provides evidence that when acting independently and in their own self-interest, the actions of individual members of a crowd result in an efficient outcome. Following this logic, if investors act independently in their pursuit of excess returns, the market will be efficient. Of course, the title of Surowiecki’s book is a nod to the classic tome by Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (emphasis mine). What happens when the individuals in a crowd behave systematically similarly, not independently?