is where were the opposition party the one that went on to win the general election where were they in the local elections one year before each of those general election victories? in 1978 the conservatives were 12 points up on labour. in 1996 labour were 16 points up on the conservatives. and in 2009 david cameron s conservatives were 15 points ahead of labour. so we can see of those three, the minimum margin is 12 points a year before a general election. a bit of a health warning we of course don t know exactly when the next general election will be, only that it has to be sometime before january 2025. but where is sir keir starmer right now, according to the local elections projected national share of the vote? he s nine points up. but there s a big caveat that i m going to come back to in a moment. let s look at the other eight
next general election and that is why it is absolutely clear from these results that we are on course for a majority labour government at the next general election. fire for a majority labour government at the next general election. the next general election. are you confident it the next general election. are you confident it is the next general election. are you confident it is a the next general election. are you confident it is a slam the next general election. are you confident it is a slam dunk, - the next general election. are you confident it is a slam dunk, some| confident it is a slam dunk, some people say that your lead may not be in tony blair territory. look people say that your lead may not be in tony blair territory. in tony blair territory. look at the results, in tony blair territory. look at the results. the in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way that in tony blair territory. look at
johnson couldn t? borisjohnson clearly couldn t because he couldn t even hold a coalition of his own mps together. what you have to do if you re honest, the truth is, it s difficult to extrapolate from this set of results exactly what s going to happen at the next election for all the reasons we have put forward. dan might be right, he might not, labour could get a majority after all this but what we can say for certain, looking at the results today across england, left right and centre, the length and breadth of the country, rishi sunak, this was his first test at the ballot box and he was absolutely rejected. and that is really important factor in of this. he can t limit on boris and liz truss, he is the face of a failing party. liz truss, he is the face of a failing party- liz truss, he is the face of a failin: -a . ., ., , failing party. could the economy turnin: , failing party. could the economy turning, could failing party. could the economy turning, could anything - failing
be taking any maceo brown - downplaying the results. i will not be taking any maceo brown spelll downplaying the results. i will not. be taking any maceo brown spell of opinion towards the labour party or excitement for their policies, we are pursuing policies that are this government s priorities and that is what you are going to deliver. in what you are going to deliver. in the end, labourwinning what you are going to deliver. in the end, labour winning 35% of the national vote projected in england with the conservatives on 26%, and nine point labour lead. the lib dems on 20%. . . . ., ., on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the taruets on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be wanting - on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be wanting to i targets they would be wanting to hit. that is
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