and gusts up to 85. keep in mind when we reach that threshold point of 74 miles per hour this is no long ear tropical storm but a hurricane. now, the question is where exactly is it going to go in this big area? you ll notice this area that happens to be shaded in white. that is your cone of uncertainty. well, there is a chance the storm could veer off more to the north, perhaps to the south. it could die out all together. there is a lot that can happen over the next 12 to 24 hours. the most crucial period is going to be when it s over the yucatan peninsula because it s going to be away from its primary power source, that warm ocean water. that s going to be the kicker. we should have a much better handle on this as you get into monday and certainly into tuesday as to where it may be headed but when it comes to the gulf of mexico and these storms it comes to where the oil happens to be at this time. it s almost like getting a pebble and throwing it into a reflecting pond. there will be
air moving into the western half of the storm. that really tests the i go tegrity and power of the storm. it s going to continue to weaken as it chugs northward. what you mentioned earlier, about the idea of heavy winds or heavy winds and big waves actually affecting parts of long island, that is really going to be an issue around 3:00 this afternoon. high tide for that part of long island. and what we re going to be seeing, of course, is some of that wind spinning counterclockwise around the center of circulation that is going to cause the water to pile up. so you might see a little bit of coastal flooding. but the farther north it goes, it s moving into an area of much cooler water, away from its primary power source, that warm ocean water. as it chugs to the north, latest forecast we have from the national hurricane center expects that, at least, according to the forecast, 80 miles per hour with gusts up to 100 by 8:00 p.m. on friday. now, just possibly skimming parts of cape cod, a