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Uncertainty is larger than usual in the long-range forecast for Tropical Storm Elsa, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, forecasters say storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are all possible across portions of Florida early next week.
The season s fifth tropical storm was racing toward the Lesser Antilles late Thursday, with maximum winds of 45 mph and a motion to the west-northwest at 28 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings continued for the central Windward Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the southern and western coasts of Haiti.
The official forecast track brings Elsa into the eastern Caribbean late Friday, with a trek to the west-northwest Saturday south of Hispaniola, followed by a deceleration and slight northwest turn near the southeastern coast of Cuba Sunday. Gradual intensification is expected over the next 48 hours due to warm sea-surface temperatures, light wind shear and adequate moisture. However, uncertainty abounds on the track, stre
CubaFloridaUnited-statesCaribbean-seaBelize-generalBelizeHaitiNational-hurricane-centerFloridiansTropical-storm-elsaNational-hurricaneAll options on the table from hurricane to dissipation
On this track, Elsa will speed through the southern Windward Islands overnight into Friday, and pass several hundred miles south of Puerto Rico early Saturday morning, likely as a mid-range tropical storm. Forecast confidence decreases beyond that point, with possibilities for next week ranging from a hurricane in the eastern Gulf to dissipation over the Greater Antilles remaining on the table.
Before digging into the forecast, an aside: yes, Elsa shares a name with the ice queen from Frozen, and yes, her sister Anna was also on the 2021 name list, and yes, as the dad of a two- and four-year-old, someone did this on purpose.
CubaMiamiFloridaUnited-statesPuerto-ricoJamaicaGulf-of-mexicoCuba-generalNational-hurricane-centerAtlantic-oceanRyan-truchelutMain-development-region10 hours ago by WMFE Staff (WMFE)
2pm update: Elsa Strengthens Further
Elsa is a bit stronger, and is now producing winds up to 85 mph. Pressure has dropped 4 mb over the past 6 hours, also indicative of intensification.
The forecast track has changed little: Elsa should move through the Caribbean Sea before turning northward next week.
Elsa Becomes First Hurricane of Season on Approach to Windward Islands
Jeff Huffman, FPREN
Elsa quickly intensified Thursday night, and by 7:45 am EDT Friday morning became the first hurricane of the 2021 season.
Hurricane force winds were observed in Barbados, which prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a special advisory shortly thereafter to reflect the upgrade. An Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft were both scheduled to investigate the system further during the day Friday.
CubaFloridaUnited-statesJamaicaCaribbean-seaBelize-generalBelizeHaitiNational-hurricane-centerFloridiansTropical-storm-elsa