- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 6-month and 12-month Bubills.
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Mar Trade Balance: No est v -$2.8B prior.
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.0% prior.
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 2.5% 2027 Bonds.
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): 0.8%e v 3.0% prior.
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Molecular Partners [MOLN.CH] +5% (trial),
AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] -1% (Ireland suspends use of vaccine)
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Speakers
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BOE Gov Bailey0reiterated stance that current lockdown was having less effect on economy compared to a year ago. Had a more balanced picture on risks and could see a spending of savings and viewed as an upside risk. Very helpful that furlough scheme to extend beyond end of covid restrictions. Would expect a pickup in inflation towards 2% in the coming months; but question was whether such gains are sustainable; not expecting inflation to rise to 4.0-5.0% area. BOE is not out of tools or firepower
Shoe Zone [SHOE.UK] -8% (earnings)
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Speakers
BOE Gov Bailey stated that the economic outlook is positive with large doses of cautionary realism. Recognize the increasingly 2-sided nature of risks. Toolkit decisions should not be interpreted as a signal about the future path of monetary policy. Contingency planning for negative rates implies nothing about BOE intentions in that direction
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Bank of Spain (BOS) Dep Gov Delgado stated that restriction on banking sector dividends likely to be lifted in Sept
- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Quarterly Inflation Report raised the 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 4.1% while cutting the 2022 GDP growth from 5.7% to 5.4%. The QIR raised the 2021 CPI forecast from 2.6% to 3.1% and raised the 2022 CPI outlook from 2.7% to 2.8%
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Speakers
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German Chancellor Merkel said to be under pressure to lay out a path to ease Germany’s coronavirus lockdown
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France Fin Min Le Maire stated that he was not concerned about the recent increase in borrowing rates. Govt had spent €16B of the stimulus plan. Would not raise taxes or tax household savings
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BOJ said to be prepared to defend Yield Curve (YCC) range before its March policy review. BOJ had no pre-set level for stopping yield rise and would depend on the speed of gains. Could act before yield hits 0.3%
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Currencies/Fixed Income
1/25/2021 10:42:53 AM GMT
Notes/Observations
- German Jan IFO Survey misses across the board as 2nd wave of pandemic derails optimism
- Italian politics remain in focus; PM Conte could decide to resign in a tactical move to position himself to lead a new government if he’s set to fall short on a key vote mid-week
- US Congress negotiates over the fiscal stimulus amid the worsening pandemic; Some Republicans seek justification for the $1.9Ton price tag
- FOMC rate decision mid-week (1st meeting under the new Biden Administration); little change to policy was expected
Asia:
- China PBoC said to potentially use contingency reserve arrangement (CRA) to stabilize liquidity before Lunar New year