Uzma Alam, M.P.H. ’13
The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Africa was reported in February 2020. More than a year later, in early April 2021, Africa was reporting 4.28 million infections and 114,000 deaths, with South Africa accounting for approximately 40% of the reported cases. Overall, Africa is currently contributing about 3.2% of the global COVID-19 burden. These statistics run counter to initial predictions of how COVID-19 would unfold on the continent, owing to several factors such as weak health systems, densely populated informal settlements and high concentrations of marginalized communities, including approximately 14.5 million forcibly displaced persons and 6.3 million refugees and asylum seekers.
However, it is important to remember that some models did more closely predict the realities on the ground. For example, Achoki et al., 2020 provided the first prevalence, incidence and mortality estimates across Africa using a context specific covariate model. Some newe