Fed meeting, we discussed her legacy and the incoming fed chair jay powell. We start with the big issue, dalios warning resonating from davos to new york. Take a listen. Ray a 1 rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that weve seen since the 19801981 period. Has that bear market started . Are we in it . Ray i think were in it. There will be a time the bank of japan and ecb begin tightening. That will be the time when bond yields increase. I dont see that now, unless im wrong on inflation. I dont believe the Federal Reserve will get the 10 year to 3. 60 . I dont think the bear market is starting. Since 1990 we had many, many predictions of a bear market in bonds, but it has not happened. Lisa joining me in new york is Subadra Rajappa, and rachel and coming to us from london is Luke Hickmore. Alright, so i want to start with you, subadra. The big question is, has the selloff in benchmarks just begun, for is this the extent of it and will people pile back in . S
We start with the big issue, dalios warning resonating from davos to new york. Take a listen. Ray a 1 rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that weve seen since the 19801981 period. Has that bear market started . Are we in it . Ray i think were in it. There will be a time the bank of japan and ecb begin tightening. That will be a time when they arbitrage narrows and maybe when bond yields increase. I dont see that now, unless im wrong on inflation. And i dont believe the Federal Reserve will get to the four tightenings they suggested, that will get the 10 year to 3. 6 . I dont think the bear market is starting. Since 1990 we had many, many predictions of a bear market in bonds, but it has not happened. Lisa joining the around the table in a new york is Subadra Rajappa, and Rachel Golder, and coming to us from london is Luke Hickmore. Alright, so i want to start with you, subadra. The big question here is has the selloff in benchmarks just begun, or is this t
Anyway. Is this a couple of isolated cases or the start of sending broader . It still seems more isolated. Clearly the tax package will create winners and losers. Tax reform has to happen. If it doesnt happen, it gets ugly. Everything gets ugly very fast. It is no longer agreement for credit markets. It is more yellow. There are still some companies with decent fundamentals, but there is a lot of sectors or more sectors under pressure. Youre not getting paid an awful lot. Avenue as an investor yet to be careful. These days when the markets rollover it feels volatility needs to rise. My concern is what if the a goes to 260 . That could be an genuine competitor to the credit market. That is where i think the bleed could be more systemic. The 800 pound gorilla is whether or not this build of a corporate leverage which we have seen over the past few years is sustainable or does it lead to something less benign . Jonathan we have a full house in new york city today. Joining me is henry peab
Anyway. Is this a couple of isolated cases or the start of sending of something broader . It still seems more isolated. Clearly the tax package will create winners and losers. Tax reform has to happen. If it doesnt happen, it gets ugly. Stock markets good ugly. Stock markets get ugly. Everything gets ugly very fast. It is no longer agreement for credit markets. It is more yellow. There are still some companies with decent fundamentals but there is a lot of sectors or more sectors under pressure. Youre not getting paid an awful lot. As an investor you have to be careful. These days when the markets rollover it feels volatility needs to rise. My concern is what if the market goes to 260 . That could be interesting. That is a genuine competitor to the credit market. That is where i think the bleed could be more systemic. The 800 pound gorilla is whether or not this build up of a corporate leverage which we have seen over the past few years is sustainable or does it lead to something less
Is this a couple of isolated cases or the start of something broader . Right now it still seems more isolated. Clearly the tax package will create winners and losers. Tax reform has to happen. If it doesnt happen, it gets ugly. Stock markets get ugly. Everything gets ugly very fast. It is no longer agreement for a green light, for credit markets. It is more yellow. There are still some companies with decent fundamentals but there is a lot of sectors or more sectors under pressure. Youre not getting paid an awful lot. As an investor you have to be careful. Buying quality. These days when the markets rollover it feels volatility needs to rise. Maybe that is what we are seeing. My concern is what if the market goes to 260 . That could be interesting. That is a genuine competitor to the credit market. That is where i think the bleed could be more systemic. The 800 pound gorilla is whether or not this build up of a corporate leverage which we have seen over the past few years is sustainable