It s not exactly a surprise there are a number of signs pointing to historic overextension not only at the top of the indexes, but throughout much of the market. And just as the laws of physics dictate how high something can be built without buckling over, there are loose axioms around how overextended valuations can get. Without the buttress of low yields as the economy recovers, price multiples are looking as if they re on an unstable foundation.
These market axioms are based on precedent. And for Jonathan Coleman, a small- and mid-cap portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, which manages $364 billion in assets, the past is illustrating how extreme investor euphoria and the valuations it is pushing up currently are.
10-year Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels since before the pandemic in recent days.
James McDonald, CIO at Hercules Investments, told Insider he expects yields to continue rising.
He said they could rise to 2.5% by the end of March and trigger a 20% sell-off in the S&P 500.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have spiked to a one-year high over the last month, rising above 1.5% as COVID-19 cases fall and vaccinations continue positive developments for the economic recovery ahead.
According to James McDonald, chief investment officer of the alternative asset manager Hercules Investments, the bleeding isn t likely to stop anytime in the coming weeks.
Wall Street Is Headed Through The Roof
UPFINA
As we mentioned in a previous post, it seems the Fed needs to keep buying TIPS to keep the nominal rate from spiking. We aren’t talking about hyper inflation or rates as high as they were from the 1970s to the 1980s. However, a 4% 10 year yield would probably have a destabilizing effect on markets. That’s just a hypothetical number. We don’t know the exact rate the 10 year yield will become a problem. The Fed doesn’t want to find out when it will be an issue.
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That s the most recent advice from Morgan Stanley s Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson.
Wilson is keeping his price target for the S&P 500 at 3,900 about 1% below the index s closing price on Monday even though he expects the pace of the economy s recovery to remain strong. Ellen Zentner, his firm s chief US economist, recently raised her forecast for 2021 US GDP to 7.6% from 6.6% because of the large fiscal stimulus that s expected in the form of checks to Americans.
So what gives, and why isn t Wilson following suit with a price-target hike? The S&P 500 index has already priced in much of the expected economic gains for the months ahead, he says.