turnout led to a 0.4% increase in president obama s margin of victory. so in some of these states that are going to be very, very tight that right now are a tossup it could be a difference. let s talk more specifically with judith brown dianis with a nonpartisan civil rights organization. thanks for having me. it is interesting when you talk about a state like, say, pennsylvania where 9% of registered voters don t have a photo i.d., but there are a lot of reasons for that. some people don t drive, for example, right? that s right. if you live in a major city, you really don t need i.d. you get on the train and the bus every day. but when you look at it, the state says, oh, about 91% have i.d., but that other percentage is about 760,000 people, and what s important to understand is why it makes a difference. actually obama won the state of pennsylvania by 650,000. so we re talking about people
healthcare decision make them more likely to vote in november. the democrats don t seem to have that kind of enthusiasm. 18% say the decision will motivate them to go to the polls. is this a net gain for the g.o.p.? we ll have to see how the swing states turn out. if more and more republicans in a state like, gosh, like, you know, north dakota for instance go to vote it s not going to make that big of a difference. if it really motivates republicans in ohio, florida, some of the swing states to go that could be a game changer. the poll that came out yet from opinion research corp done for a competing network is so important. i would caution viewers, though away from reading too much into this. there were still 20% of the surveyed registered voters in that poll who said they could still change their mind before november. so the middle is very soft. and also they surveyed registered voters not likely voters. so you show me a poll of likely voters that shows mitt romney
he also way too far to the right for a state like, michigan, which is overwhelmingly blew collar. they are not really christian conservatives as you had in south carolina where romney lost. and he has been carpet bombing that state more than he did any other state. i think it is about message more than just money. rick santorum since he won the four states a couple of weeks ago when got to michigan he really went off message. judge jeanine: did he go off message or did mitt romney like a disciplined trial attorney with all the information in his back pocket strategically time nail him saying you are not the conservative you said you were? i don t think so in this case. in it case i think it was rick santorum and the way he was talking about social issues. yeah. and i think that is what drug him off message. it wasn t that he was talking about those issues, it was the way he talked about them. and that made a big difference. and then old speeches started coming up and they were
he also way too far to the right for a state like, michigan, which is overwhelmingly blew collar. they are not really christian conservatives as you had in south carolina where romney lost. and he has been carpet bombing that state more than he did any other state. i think it is about message more than just money. rick santorum since he won the four states a couple of weeks ago when got to michigan he really went off message. judge jeanine: did he go off message or did mitt romney like a disciplined trial attorney with all the information in his back pocket strategically time nail him saying you are not the conservative you said you were? i don t think so in this case. in it case i think it was rick santorum and the way he was talking about social issues. yeah. and i think that is what drug him off message. it wasn t that he was talking about those issues, it was the way he talked about them. and that made a big difference. and then old speeches started coming up and they were
hispanic votes by gearing up or the backlash vote by anglos against illegal immigration? for every vote they would gain doing that, they will lose two votes in a state like you just start messing with your numbers. the states where that is effective, if you want to play that game, the states those are the shrinking states. those are lost electoral power. so it s diminishing returns. it might be effective to win a senate race, you know n. a midterm year. not for the president. great. chuck, we have significant information right now from our entrance polling. that s what we call it on caucus days and how mitt romney is building his commanding lead. for that, we turn to tamron hall. certainly the poll is giving us good information about how mitt romney got a commanding lead. he did well across the board