Trading has been relatively quiet in Asian session today. Dollar regained some ground overnight following hawkish minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that several members are prepared to support further rate hike if necessary. Despite this, the greenback lacks clear follow-through momentum at present. For a more sustained near-term rebound, Dollar will need additional support from upcoming economic data, including today's jobless claims and PMIs, as well as tomorrow's durable goods orders.
As trading progresses into US session, activity in the forex markets remains relatively muted. Euro is showing signs of recovery ahead of key support levels against Dollar and crucial support against Sterling. Eurozone PMIs revealed that economic recovery is strengthening, with Germany, the region's largest economy, finally catching up. Despite this positive data, Euro's gains are still modest.
New Zealand Dollar surged sharply higher following RBNZ's unexpectedly hawkish rate decision. While OCR was left unchanged, the central bank signaled the increased possibility of another rate hike this year and delayed projected timing of the first rate cut to the second half of 2025. However, Kiwi quickly gave back some of its gains after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr tempered expectations in his press conference. Orr emphasized that the OCR track is a only central projection, not a guaranteed outcome, and expressed satisfaction that inflation expectations are declining.
Sterling climbed broadly today after data showed that UK disinflation progress was slower than anticipated, with services inflation remaining persistently high. This development dashed hopes for an imminent rate cut by BoE, causing the odds of a rate cut in June to plummet from around 50% to below 20%. Despite this, the notable declines in both headline and core CPI keep the possibility of a rate cut at the BoE's August meeting alive.
Australian Dollar weakened broadly during Asian session as its recent rally lost momentum. Despite RBA minutes revealing that a rate hike was considered earlier this month, which should have been supportive for the Aussie, this positive sentiment was countered by weak consumer sentiment readings. Additionally, Aussie seemed to be weighed down by a pullback in regional stock markets, particularly with the retreat in Hong Kong's HSI.