rubio, cruz, and christie who just watched those guys over the month and see if they pop. the second thing is as dana pointed out, this is a sequential process. we don t have a national primary we don t all vote on the same day. it s one race after another and what happens in iowa is going to have a huge influence on what happened in new hampshire and that s going to have a huge influence on what happens in south carolina. and then finally, you know, to continue being the grinch here, the head-to-head polls, those don t the head-to-head general election polls, those don t really tell you don t have a lot of predictive value until a little bit later in the cycle. and then the final thing is, remember the caucuses are on february 1st. in previous cycles, i was in iowa on new years eve. we have an extra month compared to some of the previous cycles. so a long way to go. i would not be preparing my victory speech in cleveland if i were donald trump just yet.
and is fickle and is looking for something specific this year that really is different from anything that we ve seen before. the national polls, as you know, ryan, we ve all studied them, they re very important. i don t want to belittle the national polls among republicans or democrats, for that matter. they generate funds, fund-raising and all that kind of stuff. but the statewide polls in the early states are more important. in iowa, carson s ahead. but if you take a look at new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, florida, so many of the earlier states, trump remains significantly ahead right now. yeah. the new hampshire polls this week were very positive for trump. look, at this point, most of the campaigns don t even do national polls. they re just polling in the states. it s a sequential process. whoever wins iowa, that s going to affect everyone going into new hampshire, that s going to affect everyone going into south carolina. so, you re right. and look, the national polls a
he s a 32% and trump is at 18%. what is pushing carson to this significant advantage? two things, one in iowa obviously being someone whose very religious, appeals to e van gel ki evangelical voters and he s not a politician. i do think he also, he s not well-known. we haven t he hasn t gone through the scrutiny phase yet. the media hasn t treated him like a front runner and when you get treated like a front runner, you get more negative coverage. this is a testing period for carson and he ll get more coverage and will come scrutiny and we ll see if he s ready. i think this is major danger sign for donald trump because these early state polls are sort of early indicator. the national polls are sometimes lagging indicators and it s a sequential process. iowa votes and if trump gets beat in iowa, it could be all over. iowa is a caucus state and
sequential process. how you do in the early states is far more important than how you look in national polls. clinton was leading in national polls all the way until she wasn t. if you re the front runner, have you to have something other than the front-runner to convince voters you are the perso to support because once you start to lose that front-runner status, it s a long fall. it certainly is. so, ed, do you agree, should hillary clinton portray herself as sort of the underdog? well, this is a long process for her, that her runway is extensive. she has a massive lead in the polls and that urgency ultimately determines the level of aggression. if you re her, she doesn t need to be aggressive because she ll live to be the next debate. if euro mally, webb, chafee, you have no idea if you ll be in the next debate and they need to be far more aggressive trying to create an ror on her part. i think she needs to be personable, be presidential and wait for the next debate to occur.
Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20130610:20:07:00 comparemela.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from comparemela.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.