the street. he can release the strategic petroleum reserve all you want, but it s not a large amount and if you don t have someplace to refine the all, what good is it? you can put crude oil in your gas tank. todd: before we get into the white house shenanigans on how you define a recession, i want to go on the peter morici definition of recession, which appears the actual one, what reality is. peter, do you think, based upon the report that is coming out today, that we will be deemed to be in a recession? come people will call it that if we get a negative gdp print. whether we get one or not, we ll just have to see. and forecasting a positive point of 3%. but that s not much. the reality is that the technical definition of a recession is a broad-based decline in economic activity that last more than several months back of the official scorekeeper is the national bureau of economic research, which is a private body and has eight people on the committee and the look at six variables
which was what the official scorekeeper scored at because of the year s gimmicks. i call them gimmicks because they are gimmicks. if you put these two pieces together, you can see that. you see to use the word, you are essentially seeing deficits going all the way out throughout the full ten years life of this program, $200 billion a year and in most years as much as $300 billion a year and other careers total deficits impact to the negatives. this is a problem we are leaving for future congresses and future presidents and generations to have to deal with.
reworked. we know senator bernie sanders is working on that. now it is also medicaid expansion. now there s only money in the bill for hearing aids. bernie sanders won dental and vision taking care of, to. but still senators are optimistic they can get to yes. let s listen to senator tina smith yesterday. having been in conversation with senator manchin and senator my strongly is that everybody is trying to find a path forward. you can always tell when people are trying to get to yes or whether they re trying to find an excuse to say no. i have a strong feeling that democrats in the senate want to get to. yes get to senator manchin said more than once he will vote for a bill that is it felipe for. we know now from the congressional budget office that non partisan scorekeeper of this parse, this bill actually add 360 billion dollars to the debt. we know he s concerned about inflation. we ll see, they have a couple weeks. we ll see if they can get it done by the end of the. here
tick up the price of the bill. the cbo, we re sticking to sports terms, the nonpartisan scorekeeper of this whole process, they said this bill already adds over $360 billion to the deficit. that s a big concern for senator joe manchin and other moderates in the senate and adding provisions like medicaid expansion will only tick up that price. you also have items ha manchin opposes in the bill like paid family leave. he doesn t want to see expanded social safety programs without being able to fund current ones. but let s listen to what speaker nancy pelosi said after the house passed this historic legislation yesterday. take a listen. this bill is monumental. it s historic, it s transformative. it s bigger than anything we ve ever done. it s transformative now but will it look that way once the senate, if the senate passes this bill like majority leader
let me finish, that s the progressive tax increases, nobody under 400,000 gets a tax bump, the progressive tax bumps in this bill more than pay for the reconciliation plan. and that has been confirmed by the official scorekeeper on the revenue side, along with our own u.s. treasury. why isn t that good enough for the moderates in the house? i can t speak for the moderates, and you know, precisely what they re waiting for. some of this news is breaking as i m talking to you. i haven t gotten a readout from it yet. what i can tell you is what the president has said all along, as this plan will not add to the deficit, and we are getting official scores confirming that he s correct about that. jared bernstein, we really appreciate your time. thank you so much for being on. great talking to you. you too. more than half of the states all led by gop attorneys general say that they will fight the biden administration s vaccine mandate in court. we ll tell you what that will look