minds, but it s a very close race right now. we thought it would be close. potentially a three-man tie out there. it doesn t get much closer than this. all the guys in the booth have been crunching the number. ari fleischer former spokesperson for george w. bush. here s what is driving this and why ron paul is doing as well as he is. the vote this year is much younger and much more independent than it was four years ago. four years ago republicans made 86% of the republican iowa caucus, this year they re only 74%. four years ago independents were 13% of the caucus. they ve doubled to 24%. here s why that s important. ron paul has taken 48% of the independent votes. his closest opponent there romney with just 16. among republicans that s fascinating. a huge win. huge win for independents. they almost doubled in turnout. among republicans santorum is winning. santorum 27, romney 25. here s the other big demographic
or liberal. you can look at this as this is a candidate who can reach out to independents and reach out to those moderates who will be helping the gop candidate come 2012, or come this election b or you can say he s liberal. if you talk about ending wars and legalizing pot. we ll don t see the numbers come in. i see one huge screaming story tonight, republicans just don t want to vote for mitt romney. like you re trying to give a dog a pill that keeps spitting it up. they ll eat the pill because romney will eventually be the nominee. he may but it will be 25%. something he had four years ago. he has a weaker field. they don t want to vote for him. two number i m looking at. you need 2,286 delegates to win the gop nomenation. you are not going to bin it tonight. it doesn t matter. it s simply one state.
point. almost impossible to do it in a serious way. let s say romney is first or second. some people say why can t he grow? after tonight our next question is what s next and who is best positioned? mitt romney is way ahead in new hampshire. if he wins tonight or comes in a very close second. it s hard to see the bottom dropping out in new hampshire in one week. you only get one week. it will be interesting the tone. will people go after him in a nasty, negative way. the key test for romney, can he keep new hampshire? then as it was in 2008, south carolina, as it often is in republican presidential primaries, south carolina says iowa or new hampshire win over the field. we pick presidents. hot in new hampshire then he says he will go there because he knows he needs to prove he s not just mike huckabee, he is not just a christian conservative candidate. when he won his house district
bachmann, you see this playing out like a checker board. who is green? green is a tie. a tiny county, ron paul, rick perry tied in that little conservative county. this is fascinating. if you look at the open spaces, let me use a little red here, this is a very important part of the state. much more conservative. much more conservative. and a decent population chunk here. sioux city. 3 1/2%. conservatives here. a debate out here not long ago, a lot of conservatives target this area here. excuse me for reaching across. we ll see if the romney organization can deliver tonight, romney carried this area four years ago. remember conservatives have attacked him saying he s not the true conservative. if you look at the three counties in the west all carried by romney. in woodbury, where sioux city is, he had a decent margin. what happens out of the western part of the state, we don t have the votes there just yet. conventional wisdom before voting began tonight was the
if you go back four years ago this was very important to mitt romney. if he stays tied right there, he could be in trouble with the overall vote. one last point i want to make, look out here, sioux city, woodbury county, 3% of the population not counted yet. just down below, some counties not counted yet. this is a conservative part of the state. four years ago for mitt romney. it has been hotly contested the year. if these counties stay roughly the same, this state could be decided out here. we re still waiting, 3 1/2% of the population here. remember, as we get closer, if it stays this close, the bigger population centers. iowa has no huge population centers, but if ron paul can hold this, then we ll watch davenport, cedar raps, dubuque. here, romney again, if you want to go back in time to lynn county there, romney won a little bit last time. more fun matsch mah to come.