clinton white house that there are a lot of differences between these two elections. i think that this analogy breaks down fairly early in the process. jenna: one of the ones of the variables are point out is the economy. in 2004 you say it was not the paramount issue. it was a big issue but not quite as big as it is. you bring up the fact that the american voter has changed dramatically so since the election of 2004. tell us a little bit more about that. since the mid 1990s the popular house for house of representatives has been a pretty good proximate see for the standing of the president and his party. if you look at the house popular votes in the four congressional elections preceding that 2004 contest we find it s very steady, in a very narrow range. the republicans are getting between 48 and 51% of the popular vote. democrats between 46 and 49. that is historically unusual to have such stable voting patterns. the 2004 election did turn out