election where, as your correspondent said, it was a surprise victory, a miracle victory for scott morrison. and australia, like many other country also a polling failure, and they also pointed at that election to the former prime minister losing and he didn t. it s not the overall vote that counts. got to count the seats, not the polls. and the labor opposition has to win a net seven seats to form government. and it depends where the swings are to whether labor will win. having said that, your correspondent is right. there is a sense or mood for change. in a sense, we have a character competition going on between the prime minister and the opposition leader or prime minister who s largely unliked and an opposition leader who is seen as unsure. and the prime minister sought to make the most of some gaffes on
polls taken overall, there was an assumption mark warner will win. we had a dozen in the last week. this would be a case we had all the polling autopsies after last november what went wrong? you can isolate last november to a few of the states in the rust belt, but boy if you were to wake up tomorrow and ed gillespie is the governor elected of virginia that is a different kind of polling failure. there will be different kind of questions. one thing to watch for too as we rauch whwatch the returns, q common in virginia the democratic vote to come in fairly late. gillespie could appear to be ahead for a good part of the evening and still lose this race. so as you watch the rurps, keep that in mind rurps, keowe re that in mind. democrats stay on the ledge in the results come in. democrats break late in more than virginia.
we should hope he wouldn t try it now that he s president but i wouldn t bet the double wide on that. so all four of you could stick around. taking a quick pause here and talk about the polling failures because as we ve been saying for the majority of the country, tuesday nights results were a shock. partly because of what jeff greenfield is describing. nate silver s website put the odds at 70% and trump s victory at 30%. five thirty eight may have gotten it less wrong. so i talked to nate silver from what he learned from this experience and what s going to happen going forward. was this the greatest polling failure of modern times? no. this is why we think some of the discourse both before and after is a little bit irresponsible. the national polls are going to wind up being off by only two
trump prietsdes himself on beinn intimidator. early in the campaign he was an intimidator of the press. we should hope he wouldn t try it now that he s president but i wouldn t bet the double wide on that. all four of you, if you could stick around, take a quick pause here and talk about the polling failures because as we ve been saying, tuesday night s results were a shock. that s because of what jeff greenfield were describing, the different polling result, especially on the state level that showed clinton the likely victor. now, 538, nate silver s web site owned by espn, put the odds of a clinton victor at 70% and trump at 30%. that was one of the more optimistic projections for trump. 538 may have gotten it less wrong than other forecast models. so i talked to nate silver about what he learned from his experience and what s going to happen going forward. was this the greatest polling failure of modern times? no, and this is why we think