Action Toll Brothers and stitch fix stocks are moving. Well break down the trades straight ahead we start with target practice, folks. Looking into next year more firms putting out 2021 s p forecast its quite a range, citigroup 3800 three percent higher than now on the s p at the other send j. P. Morgan 4500 about 20 percent upside so folks as we gear up for next year, which camp are you in guy . Are you at the low end 3800 or closer to jpmorgan. I will tell you what im in i love Tyler Mathison. Nice to see you. Youre the man. Thanks for being here tyler. Tyler, what was that show boldly go where no man not star tr trek you a fan . I never was a fan thats okay. Nor was i chauvinism notwithstanding, for the first time in History Today Global Market exceeded 100 trillion of market cap, 115 percent of global gdp and s p 500 now about 180 percent of u. S. Gdp just ridiculous numbers. So i understand why the market is going higher, i get it, but id about in the low end of that camp, tyler.
The dow did go down. The nasdaq went down 4 or 5 . I spent the better part of this year studying the pandemic i was right. You know what we just cover . The professionals are not the only covid that matters. We have a Massive Group of investors who become professionals. They dont care about the same thing as the experts theyre the ones who were the marginal buyers and sellers. The investors have changed the entire character of the market what made you not be able to sleep at night it was very little belief in stocks for the past 20 years, the convention says stocks could no longer be trusted. They continue to lose their values way too quickly when something goes wrong on top of that, the convention only a fool to try to pick individual stocks. You may as well stop trying to beat the mark and put some of your money in an index fund and invest safely in bonds the last eight months, that convention has been stood on its head by a new generation of investors after the rise of Commission Fr
Because we lost control of covid19 today went higher. The the s p gaining and nasdaq gaining 1. 02 . Hospitality and leisure. Has the market lost its mind no we are dealing with cross currents any time stocks get hammered, it seems to trigger visceral vaccine reaction good news bails out. On the one hand we know the cavalry is not coming. It is going to be in the form of at least one, pfizer vaccine, wont reach us until spring. In the meantime the virus is out of control we had 162,000 cases yesterday we are in a rough winter earnings from cisco, the networking type and Applied Materials and walt disney which needs no introduction. It is looking like well have a smooth transition from the Trump Administration to the Biden Administration thats a huge strange and even last week at this time, a notion of trump refusing to make plans to vacate the white house. I am sure you are sick of hearing it could the good earnings continue if you are worried of the virus and encouraged by the vaccine
Gaining. It is time to admit that conventional wisdom has been wrong every step of the way. In this market, patience is not a virtue discipline cluster of fortune. Buying the most obvious stock, well, that has been a strategy that was easy i struggle about how this is possible i am not used to a mark that reward investors being late to the party. We found out moderna has a vaccine that may work better than pfizer. Thats getting off the table we got uncontrol spread over america. And mayors and governors refused to shutdown the bars and restaurants. Those are the main places we are getting infected no, it is at home, jim this pandemic is steam rolling us the prospect of a vaccine keeps on plotting it and shutting everything down. I am sure you are wondering, given the numbers that we see, how is that possible first every now and then there were moments that well stood on our head. Time like these is not sell. You must be willing to suspend judgment how far stocks can reasonably go. Than
Nasdaq declined. 82 there is only one thought. Good, they all got a chance to buy. Not long ago on days like this we say oh boy, i got to get out of here while it is getting good who knows what it is going to happen with this thing it is going to roll over now we often see pull backs like this as opportunities that are too precious to swander. How do we explain the new mindset . I think because we broken the tyranny of the indexers. When the fed says something positive or when we get solid employment number. Either way, we were in the throw to these big macro events. They control everything. Not anymore. These days macro does not matter very much. And etf buyers have stopped reacting to this stuff instead they react to the opportunity so when stocks come down, these people step up and actually start buying, make it much harder to have a hideous selloff you know what there is nothing new about this less lock steps opportunity mindset. This was the old new normal of the index funds 20 ye