Now on bbc news, its hardtalk with stephen sackur. Welcome to hardtalk. I am stephen sackur. The worldwide spread of coronavirus and its significant negative impact on the Global Economy represents a powerful illustration of the perils of forecasting. Countries in lockdown, Financial Markets in turmoil, this isnt the way 2020 was supposed to turn out. An opportune moment, then, for my guest today, acclaimed writer and businesswoman margaret heffernan, to publish a book challenging the fertilisation of forecasting. Is it time to embrace uncertainty . There margaret heffernan, welcome to hardtalk. I think we would all like to believe thatis think we would all like to believe that is Human Knowledge expands, particularly with technology, our ability to forecast the future accurately improves. Is it your contention that that is not true . It isnt my contention that it isnt true. Definitely, our capacity to forecast many things has improved, specifically the weather although it may not ofte
In the lively and engaging Everything is Predictable, Tom Chivers seeks to lift the sagging reputation of statistics using the story and work of Thomas Bayes.
'Everything Is Predictable' Review: The Secret of Bayes | American Enterprise Institute aei.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from aei.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
In their book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner argue that good decision-makers need to be good predictors of outcomes of their decision-making.
In a world of rapid change, looking for certainty can obscure opportunity. Assessing probabilities and taking many smaller yet bold steps can offer a stronger strategy path.