Getting a sense of where the chinese economy is heading, december pmi from the private side ties shin. This is the third couple of days we have had the numbers that of the official stat bureau. 9574 on the bloomberg terminal. You can see where we have come from the dark days of 2008 when everything fell off a cliff. 51. 6. I here, that number came in and the other day. 50. 8 whiching at reflects what is going on with the small and mediumsized enterprises. Showing we have growth and it is steady as you go for the time being. Untilutes ago to go trading in hong kong and 45 minutes until the thai shin numbers came out. A late opening today because of a big ceremony going on in the korean stock exchange. Fort of news to digest those market participants. Good morning. As seoul gets back online, quite a bit for markets to consider. Kim jonguns new years eve address. We have the latest data points for south koreas showing exports rose to a 60 year high. We are seeing it gaining about one thir
S p up 17 points higher and the nasdaq up 38 points higher. Give it a little context. Give it a little context. The china situation. What did it do yesterday . It was bad. It was bad. No today. It was bad. Closed already. Closed already. It had gone down as much as 5 in the morning. So they have indicated theyre ready do more if necessary. But people dont necessarily believe that theyre ready to do more because it can only do so much. And if they truly are trying to open up Capital Markets and inflow and be more free market orient, the more that theyve manipulated, the less it looks like theyre going that way. Right. Because then you dont actually trade on fundamentals. Youre always trading is the government going to come in or not. Weve been trading on that too for years now. You mean like for banking shares . I mean we dont have the u. S. Cogovernment coming in and buying stockmarkets. Are you talking about the feds . You dont believe that. I do believe that. You do. I believe every
Than f. A. N. G. My acronym for facebook, amazon, netflix and google. When they try to lead, nothing else follows. Thats why we could rally as hard as we did with the dow roaring 190 points. The s p 1. 24 and the nasdaq jumping 0. 98 . Sure, it might be a one day wonder. No it could be. But wonder of wonders it did happen. I often talk about the setup of a given day. Typically when im squawk on the street i like setup or i dont like the setup which is the case for ages until today. When i said, holy cow this setup could be a good one. Too many people got negative. The markets oversold. And like i said last night, it would take tremendous discipline to buy something. Remember the what i gave you, which is a sign that were arriving from the short term bottom. I want to give you a blow by blow of what defines the setup for me. And why todays so positive versus the unrelenting negativity we have gotten used to lately and the whole setup will strike you as being counterintuitive. It all sta
Need to thinkthey about, they definitely represented those in the minutes. Market moved on the back of it. I want to show you where we think on certain metrics the implied probability of a september hike is. We think it has been discredited. Of doing a number ways it. Down to 38 , this is the chart. Let me get the camera to pan down a bit. Off of the sort of move the september increase, as the market has pride back out. Last night, they were off the hooks looking at what is happening here. Edging markets around the world, paying great attention to it. Lets take a quick look at the u. S. Close. And i want to show you the emerging Market Reaction overnight. Mostly the main averages and indices in the states faded last of 1 . Down 9 10 let me show you the emerging Market Reaction, a number of voice of looking at it. This is the turkish lira. The dollar has been rising. The fed story this is interesting. You have a spike here. We pushed down to record lows on the turkish lira. A number of
The trigger on the economy at home but if youre looking at inflation that is where the concern is and those inflation was have piled on since the july meeting. Continuingd a spiraling lower and oil prices and that will eventually push back a fed rate rise. Only about one third think that a rate hike will happen in september. It used to be a 5050. Beforenny isnt it when we thought the stimulus would end in the u. S. The market would selloff. Now a delay in the rate rise and the market still sells off its because they are focusing on why the rate rise will not come. By 1 10 of a percent. We will be seeing how all of these markets open across the board and there will be some interesting movers. Keep your eye on richemont. We are talking watches. The exports from watches are following. Down 40 in china. That is a phenomenal statistic. That is showing the woes of Consumer Sentiment in china not wanting to buy foreign goods and especially not after a devaluation. Think about what august is g