guest: no, look at the economic data. the rolling twelve month period you have real growth domestic product growing at 2.3 percent and if you go back to 1948 when you see just in history that when we dip below 2 percent from the rolling 12 in period that results in a recessionary period, two or three quarters down the road so that leads me to believe the first quarter of 2012 will be a recession. i am not a market technician, although i play one on tv but i noticed we held before the so-called 200 moving day average and it sounds arcane but that can be a very supported development for those who are more bullish, say, than todd, what do you say? guest: i think in the long run if you are long term investor you need to keep your eye at pie and the short-term volatility downturns in the market are buying opportunities.