While the U.S. economy continues to expand and is currently a major driver of global growth, inflation has recently ticked up after falling considerably from a peak of 9.1% nearly two years ago. Many now perceive that in the near term, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not reduce borrowing costs, and some anticipate a resumption of raising rates by early 2025. Unless a severe economic downturn occurs, interest rates are likely to remain relatively elevated for an extended period. A tight labor market and strong household net worth has led to remarkable resilience in U.S. consumer spending as Americans continue to enjoy experiences and travel. With this said, modest employment growth is anticipated as companies in certain industries are reducing headcounts while others are scaling back hiring.
Defying the expectations of many, the U.S economy has demonstrated resilience driven in part by a solid employment report with stronger than expected wage growth during June, along with continued healthy levels of consumer spending. With this said, the U.S. economy has been slowed by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation through a series of interest rate hikes that began early last year. Although trending downward, with inflation remaining above its two percent target, the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates again this month and mull another hike as soon as September. Despite elevated inflation, which is now easing, and ongoing fears of impending economic recession, unemployment rates remain low, and Americans continue to spend money on goods, services, and experiences.
Heading into a new year, the U.S. commercial real estate industry finds itself in choppy waters amid fears of a recession, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes as market participants await a course correction. Challenges during 2022 including continued supply chain constraints, increasing labor costs and struggles in attracting talent are anticipated to endure through 2023. Combined with international and domestic geopolitical issues and market volatility, many believe during the near term, the U.S will experience a mild to moderate economic recession.
Economists, politicians, and business leaders are split on whether the U.S. economy is heading for a recession, is already in one, or will merely experience a slowdown. With continued supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts (most notably the war in Ukraine), and the Fed’s determination to continue increasing the federal funds interest rate, there is tremendous uncertainty around inflation and where the economy is heading. Mixed signals abound, however U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased for the first time this year in the third quarter, expanding at a higher-than-expected 2.6 percent annually. Unemployment remains low, wage increases are strong and while growth and earnings are slowing, most consumers and corporations are in good financial condition with healthy underlying credit.