better percentagewise than where joe biden did what joe biden did back in 2020. that is obviously a very positive sign. joe biden won the state by 30 points. basically, the yes vote needed to blow away where joe biden was in terms of percentages. let s see tonight again. where we are. you said oh. right now 73% to 26%. a little bit better. no democratic apathy. a bigger spread. now, keep in mind they counted the mail vote first. mail vote trends democratic. these numbers will probably start to drop a little bit. but the reason it s as big as it is right now is because there s no democratic apathy at least that we ve seen so far. track down the to the next county over, orange county. this used to be the republican base in the state. that has started to shift over the course of the last several cycles. but in 2020 even though joe biden won this county there were two republican house members who won seats around this county. where s the no vote right now? 57.9% to 42.1%. where
because republicans, again, are giving them so much to work with. and in fact, it was just a few days ago that larry elder said that joe biden had won in a fair election and then he took it back. he had to take it back because he too is afraid of the base. david chalian, we heard a very national speech just now from gavin newsom. tell us what you re picking up in the exit polls and more. well, as you noted in his speech, that one-two punch you guys were talking about is now the democratic playbook going forward, right? lean into science. lean into vaccine mandates. lean into management of the coronavirus. and at the same time trumpify the republican party as much as possible, which of course republican voters help you do because right now trump really is the life force inside the gop. those two things together, you heard it all throughout his speech. that wasn t just california. that was nationally. but looking inside these numbers, i will also say there
their vote. ron so for democrats there s a lesson here that there may be the ability to mobilize their voters. yes, california is unusually favorable to rain. but pointing out the contrast on how to respond to covid, tying republicans not only to trump but to florida and texas, cl clearly was a big wake-up call for democrats in california and i think some democrats are going to see it as a wake-up call ron, let me ask you this. this is just me. i m not a political analyst. people just weren t dialed in. when there was so much consternation about oh my gosh, gavin newsom, you better look out, things are tighter, how much was people were just not dialed in at the moment, the polling was too early, they weren t ready to hadn t figured it out? just a quick my quick thought. among registered voters as harry knows, among registered voters he was always way ahead. the only time the race was close in the polls was when people did likely voter screens and found fewer democrats t
president, key democratic senators go out there. liz warren, barack obama did a commercial. exactly. and what they re trying to do is frankly take advantage of the fact that the former president isn t going away. just the opposite. he is commenting. he doesn t have his twitter feed, but he has his e-mail and he is doing everything he can to stay involved and to keep his people within the republican party front and center. and the more he s out there, the more democrats are trying to take advantage to use him as a foil. no, i think that s right. and the question is what will republicans do about it, right? they ve got larry elder here who did horribly. everybody thought he would going into this. and there are other candidates who will be on the ballot in these coming months and years and possibly in 2024 trump himself on the ballot again. so if you re republicans, you re nervous about that. but you also know that trump has
and talk about not just himself, talk about the state, talk about the issues, talk about his kids, and walk away a winner tonight. yeah. that s tough to pull off. and when you see somebody pull something like that off on the national stage i think you ve got to give him his let me just say they also ran a great campaign. they did. and i admire the campaign they ran. it was smart. as i said, they grabbed the definition of the race. they defined what the stakes were about. and they made the pandemic and trumpism and elder the focus of that race. and that s why they tough and smart. got this big victory. very smart and very well done. they were very agile at the beginning when they said just vote no, let s get rid of the rest of the democrats, let s make this a simple proposition here. just vote no. and then covid was obviously a problem for him at one point. but then when the delta variant came and people started feeling unsafe, they understood that the mandates mig