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<p>Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today.</p>
<p>Let me first pause to recognize the millions who are suffering the tragic consequences of Russia s invasion of Ukraine.</p>
<p><span>Thank you Peter, and thank you to the UCSB Economic Forecast Project for the invitation to speak today. My plan is to start with my outlook for the U.S. economy in 2022, and then describe what I consider the appropriate path of monetary policy to keep the economy on a healthy and sustainable course.</span><span> But, before I get into that discussion, let me comment on what I think is on everyone s minds today, Russia s attack on Ukraine. Obviously, there are people in harm s way and we shouldn t lose sight of them. It is far too early to judge how this conflict will affect the world, or the world economy, and what the implications will be for the U.S. economy. But this situation adds uncertainty to my outlook and will be something I will be monitoring very closely. As my speech will say, we will need to carefully look at the incoming data, especially during a time of heightened uncertainty.</span></p>