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David Casey is Senior Network Planning Editor at Routes, providing insight on network strategy and development across the Aviation Week Network. This includes the daily Routes Digest, Routes magazine and the Routes Aviation Podcast.
History tells us that crises spur new business models in the aviation industry, with struggling carriers making way for more ambitious and innovative players to enter the market and capture share.
Just as the state-owned Gulf airlines took traffic away from US and European legacy carriers by connecting passengers through their hubs following the 9/11 terror attacks, LCCs with the operational flexibility to offset the lower load factors with cheaper ticket prices also thrived.
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Such has been the magnitude of the pandemic impact on air travel demand that the airline industry has to some extent been in a stasis since March - and with it so too has much of the normal airline failures, mergers and start-up activity.
A slowdown in the appetite for start-ups is hardly surprising given the paucity in air travel demand, which remains stymied by ongoing restrictions and quarantines. Likewise, simply surviving the crisis has been the focus for airlines meaning there is little time or the financial wherewithal to pursue acquisitions.
The relatively small number of airline failures is perhaps more counter-intuitive given the tough climate. It is though explained by the unprecedented levels of financial support governments have provided to keep carriers on life support through the crisis.
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