Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last .
This update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last Tuesday, February 9. A week where the "everything" rally in stocks found a fresh gear and volatility hovered near a one-year low. The dollar traded softer, bond yields rose while commodities raced higher with broad gains seen across energy, metals and grains.
A Fundamental Bull Market or Speculative Binge
A fundamental bull market is supported by broad based economic growth which spurs solid growth in worker s wages and organic growth in corporate revenue and cash flow. The steady increase in economic activity lifts the stock market but the market s valuation is below the 75th percentile of historical valuations. A fundamentally driven bull market is not dependent on the economy needing an extraordinary amount of fiscal stimulus to avoid a recession and surge in bankruptcies
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The US dollar has shown some improvement of late. What has been the trigger for the upward move? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: MUFG Research