Good morning. Im mark moore, director for the center of military and diplomatic history here csis. We are delighted to host sir Lawrence Freedman this morning. I see some familiar faces as host of new ones which is great. As most of you in this got i think understand well, the idea of forcing the future in principle holds great appeal, so much of what we do in washington in terms of allocating resources, developing capabilities and dividing strategies is based upon our expectations of the military environment of the future. The trouble of course is that prediction is difficult. Some would even say impossible. Of course in reading this trip the book i was reminded of a saint by a chinese philosopher that those of knowledge did not predict, and those who predict did not have knowledge. Philip tadlock, the author of the bestselling book super forecasting contested active prediction is not impossible, at least in the shortterm, but he also emphasized that humans are extremely gullible when
57. 4. The forecast was 56. 3. Better, bothng in for manufacturing actually, services a little below estimates that 54. 9. We will hear from mario draghi, speaking in germany. He says Forward Guidance is a useful instrument, but the effectiveness can be improved. Lets listen. Its easier to explain to the general public. Clear. Change is insider change. Saying, when the facts change, i change my mind. What do you do, sir . For policymakers, its not that simple and Research Helps us to decide whether a change deserves a policy response, or as we say, we should work through it. Fourth, when the world changes, as it did 10 years ago, policies, especially Monetary Policy need to be adjusted. Thats true for most people, but not for everybody. Such an adjustment is never easy. It requires and im prejudiced, a new assessment of the new realities with clear eyes, ofncumbered by the defense previously held paradigms that have lost any explanatory power. Fifth, we mus tbt be aware of te ours that
Mitch ellisonce and allison finkelstein. Says but this is a compilation of mostly u. S. Army video core footage. Ae idea was to create america did which was to build the bring the war to a close. How have the propaganda been intended by the government . Reassureas intended to a justns they fought for cause. There was quite a bit of backlash against world war i. This is the era where you see america retreat into neutrality, the rejection of the league of nations. A littled have given bit of a boost of morale. Where are the films held today . Mitchell the original copies are maintained by the National Archives. They are being digitized and placed on the National Archives Youtube Channel so anyone can watch these at any time. Is themer preservation of this type of film a difficult art . To review mays have copies that have scratches. We have a staff that will meticulously go through and check to make sure each scene is clear. Often it came with that sort of transferred from whatever Gover
Mitch ellisonce and allison finkelstein. Says but this is a compilation of mostly u. S. Army video core footage. Ae idea was to create america did which was to build the bring the war to a close. How have the propaganda been intended by the government . Reassureas intended to a justns they fought for cause. There was quite a bit of backlash against world war i. This is the era where you see america retreat into neutrality, the rejection of the league of nations. A littled have given bit of a boost of morale. Where are the films held today . Mitchell the original copies are maintained by the National Archives. They are being digitized and placed on the National Archives Youtube Channel so anyone can watch these at any time. Is themer preservation of this type of film a difficult art . To review mays have copies that have scratches. We have a staff that will meticulously go through and check to make sure each scene is clear. Often it came with that sort of transferred from whatever Gover
Afternoon nap. I dont think he was drunk. I have to say that that advice on Alcohol Consumption may be the most encouraging thing ive heard for a very long time. Lets go to the gentleman at the book of the room now. I would like to start by saying how much i appreciate the canadians arrival in england in 1940. The First Canadian division arrived and they were virtually the only group or troops we had to protect us. I also appreciated them because i can remember them with our feet up on our fender in our kitchen. Giving me lollipops and american comics, including little orphan annie. The question i would like to ask is that at the end of the war i believe the canadians forgive britain debt. I would like to ask, if you know, how much that was in financial terms. Im not sure exactly here. Okay. Im not sure exactly how much they gave. The total amount that canada gave to britain and to join the war was 3. 2 billion. That was used for manufacturers and food stuffs and machinery and military