CHF/JPY Struggles to Break Resistance Around 118.60, Whatâs Next?
2021-04-21 15:00:00
Izaac Brook,
CHF/JPY Talking Points:
CHF/JPY hit a multi-year high around 118.80 in mid-February.
The pair has been struggling to reclaim this level and has continually met support around 118.60 recently.
The 118.60 level marked a high in both 2017 and 2018.
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CHF/JPY Struggles to Break Resistance Around 118.60, What’s Next?
CHF/JPY hit its highest level since early 2016 in February, rising to briefly trade around the 118.80 level. The pair met resistance around this multi-year high and grinded back lower, falling to support around the 116.00 level.
Another attempt on 118.00 in mid-March met a similar fate, sliding back to the 116.00 level. From this March 23rd low, the pair steadily strengthened through mid-April, rising as high as 118.70 before meeting resistance and turning slightly lower. Over the following week, price action whipsawed between 118.60 and 117.70, wit
Consumer Sentiment Hits New Pandemic High in April But Misses Expectations
2021-04-16 14:00:00
Izaac Brook,
Consumer Sentiment and US Dollar Talking Points:
Consumer Sentiment printed below expectations at 86.5 vs. forecast of 89.6.
One year inflation expectations rose to highest level since 2012.
US Dollar and US 10yr yields both rotated lower in the immediate aftermath of the print.
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Consumer Sentiment Hits New Pandemic High in April But Misses Expectations
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for March printed at 86.5 vs. a forecast of 89.6, a disappointing result amidst consistent beats of expectations from other US economic data points in recent weeks. This print still marks the index’s highest point since last March, before the pandemic and related containment measures took effect.
Silver Hits Three Week High, Future Outlook Remains Mixed
2021-04-15 17:00:00
Izaac Brook,
Silver Talking Points:
Silver hit a fresh three week high above the 25.80 level.
The metal had hit its lowest point since December at the end of March, around the 24.00 level.
Overall, precious metals have struggled in 2021 as US yields have moved higher.
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Silver Hits Three Week High, Future Outlook Remains Mixed
Since hitting a multi-month low around the 24.00 level at the end of March, Silver has been attempting to stage a rebound. The precious metal briefly rose above the 25.50 level on April 8th before meeting resistance and dropping lower. The metal is rallying again following strong retail sales and jobless claims numbers from the US, breaking back above the 25.50 level to an intraday high above 25.80. This level is Silver’s highest point since March 22nd, marking a three week high for the precious metal.
S&P 500 Continues to Trade Around Highs as Big Banks Beat on Earnings
2021-04-14 12:00:00
Izaac Brook,
JPM, GS, WFC Earnings Talking Points:
JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all reported Q1 EPS strongly above the consensus estimates.
Bank stocks have benefitted from the rise in US yields in 2021.
The US economic outlook is continuing to brighten on vaccinations and stimulus.
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S&P 500 Continues to Trade Around Highs as Big Banks Beat on Earnings
Futures contracts on the S&P 500 point to the index opening around the fresh all-time-highs set yesterday as earnings season kicks off with blowout numbers from some of the largest US banks. JPMorgan reported Q1 EPS of 4.50 versus an estimate of 3.05, Goldman Sachs reported Q1 EPS of 18.60 verses an estimate of 10.06, and Wells Fargo reported Q1 EPS of 1.05 versus an estimate of 0.68. Strength from the financial sector can be a further tailwind to a stronger economic recovery.
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Corporate Bond Fund Flows as Q2 2021 Begins 2021-04-09 14:30:00 Izaac Brook,
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Corporate Bond Fund Flows Talking Points:
S&P500-linked SPY ETF flows continue to be mixed as index breaks above the 4,000 level.
20 Day MA of Russell 2000-linked IWM ETF flows turns negative for the first time since mid-February.
Corporate Bond ETF LQD saw a record outflow in early April. Advertisement
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Corporate Bond Fund Flows as Q2 2021 Begins
The US economic outlook has continued to improve as Q2 begins. Data prints point to rising demand, increased consumer spending and confidence, and strong activity from both the services and the manufacturing sector. The $1.9T American Rescue Plan has been signed into law and is beginning to provide a further boost to the economy. The rise in longer-term US yields seems to have paused for the meantime. Meanwhile, 1 in 4 American