Surge in Covid cases postpones but does not derail India’s recovery: Jeremy Zook, Fitch Ratings
SECTIONS
Last Updated: Apr 26, 2021, 04:41 PM IST
Share
ETMarkets.com
Jeremy Zook, Director, Asia Sovereign Ratings at
How is India positioned versus the rest of the world? What are the parameters that will lead to deterioration in fiscal outlook, if any?
Back in March, we had forecast a 12.8% rebound for India. India was well positioned compared to most other economies in the world for a very robust recovery from the pandemic shock last year. Of course, what we are seeing now is a very worrying public health emergency across India. It is a very rapidly changing situation that we think will add some headwinds to our 12.8% growth forecast. As restrictions are being rolled out across a number of states and virus cases continue to increase, we are keeping quite a close eye on a number of indicators. We are looking at mobility indicators in particular and just the level of restrictio
A major downside risk to India s economic growth continues to be the pandemic-induced morbidity and the rising coronavirus cases that has elevated health stimulus as a key macroeconomic lever for India’s continued recovery, the finance ministry said in its monthly economic review report for February. While India continues to avoid the second wave of pandemic, there has been a surge in cases in eight states underscoring once again the inevitability of social distancing in keeping the pandemic at bay until a critical mass of inoculated population builds up immunity to control the growth of infection in the country, the department of economic affairs said.