Branko Milanovic
In 2006, the World Bank set up a blue-ribbon Commission on Growth and Development to understand why some countries achieve growth miracles and others fail. Reflecting on the findings, Michael Spence, who chaired the Commission, wrote that “perhaps the most important lesson was that growth patterns that lack inclusiveness and fuel inequality generally fail” (Spence 2018). Since the Commission’s work, India has joined the list of growth miracles, bearing out – and narrowly beating out – the forecast by Rodrik and Subramanian (2004) that India would grow at 7% per year annually for the next 20 years. The four-fold increase in average incomes since 1990 has lowered the share of the population living in absolute poverty from 45% to 20%, improving the lot of 130 million people.