Like business and economic cycles, stock markets also have cycles where they will take a liking to a particular sector in such a manner that valuations will go through the roof. Then comes a phase, where the same sector is thrown down the dumps. Real estate sector is one sector where in 2008, valuations were at their peak. then come and fall and by the start of 2020 valuations were in the dumps. Thanks to many factors, including sudden spurt in demand in covid and post, sector being cleaned both due to pressure from the banks and the impact of new laws like RERA, there was an upswing in the industry. This happened at a time when liquidity was high and we have seen a resurgence of select real estate stocks. If one looks at the announcements coming from the industry about projects getting sold, it indicates that demand is high. Whether the stock prices are already reflecting the rosy picture?
After a brutal correction, at an index level we can see some respite. But at the broader market levels, there are clear signs that valuations are still a concern. So, it might be too premature to call that the risk of overall high valuations leading to more time wise correction is over. There are questions at this point of time which need to be addressed. First, what does one do with existing investments? Second, which set of stocks one should look at if one is making if one is planning to put in fresh money? The answer to the first question, move out of stocks where fundamentals are in doubt and stocks price have just moved up because of liquidity which was rolling on the street. For the second one, stick to large caps and even in that diversify exposure to different sectors. Don t over expose oneself to one sector as one headwind in a sector can take away gains. Last but not least, stick to companies with certain level of Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), and
While there is always a talk about how many new demat accounts have been opened every few months. But how many folios have got added in the mutual fund industry is something which does not make it to headlines. What makes a headline is just the headwinds, about new rules and regulations or a new competition coming up. But in reality, this fact is that for mutual funds houses or AMC companies, these headwinds are very minor things to handle, because they have the biggest macro tailwind of financialisation of saving, a trend which got really strong post demonetisation. Let s look at the different headwinds and some narratives around them which the AMC industry has dealt with over many years and still come out strong.
In a fortnight where smallcaps were the worst performers and large investors are counting on how much losses their smallcap portfolio have incurred. There are still some die-hard small fans who would be looking to invest in small caps and there is nothing wrong in investing in small caps even in mayhem if one is sure of holding it for the next three to five years. The only thing that needs to be ensured is that one should understand that there is a difference between a good business and a bad business even in the small, mid and largecap segments. There is a difference in the absolute value of the stock and the value of the company. There are some businesses that will remain small but are so niche that they will still make wealth for you if you hold them for some time. But if your definition of smallcap stocks is a stock that is quoting at below Rs 20 or an X amount and the reason you want to buy that stock is because you are hoping your money will grow by ten times, then forget small,
After the recent hit, there has been a bounce back in Nifty and sensex. Along with them there has also been an improvement in the market breadth But not enough to say that bears have once again have been beaten. At this point of time, one cannot rule out more profit booking which might emerge from global factors. The probability that the damage to stock prices in the mid-cap segment is still higher cannot be ruled out. In such times, if one is taking fresh exposure to equity, ensure that there is some level of quality as far as the business and fundamentals are concerned. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.