The Covid-19 recession that hit the French economy was completely non-standard, characterised by an unprecedented and sharp contraction of activity. This column discusses recent findings from the French business cycle dating committee, which show that the recession reached its trough in the second quarter of 2020. Since the third quarter of 2020, the economy has been in a
Eric Monnet, Damien Puy
The Covid-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented economic recession in most countries around the world. Given the nature of shock, the start of the slump has been clearly identified. For example, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee rapidly identified a peak in the US business cycle in 2019Q4 (NBER 2020). But the exit from the Covid-19 recession is less clear. In a recent contribution, Hamilton (2021) argues that the US recession ended in 2020Q2, but there is so far no official announcement from the NBER. With regards to other countries, especially in Europe, the cyclical situation also appears unclear, as economic activity seems to be conditioned by the waves of the pandemic, as pointed by the EABCN-CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (Weil et al. 2020).