Historically a tricky month. How much, though, does it have to do with the turn were starting to see and the data . The calendar itself, sure. The data are what they are in terms of performance but its want been bad when you have the market up, 10 or more. To me thats one of the things you keep in the back of your mind. The seasonal weakness was mostly felt in august. Either the turn in the data or just the fact that were not being able to escape the late cycle back drop. At least psychologically. When you have employment down to 3. 5 . The fed has been tightening for a year and a half,ist time to wonder, how much longer can the cycle last . Theres not much to observe in the numbers, aha, its here, the soft landing is a fantasy, its not going to happen. As many have said in the jobs number is consistent with a soft landing. Who knows. Consistent with descending into Something Else . I think the biggest risk in the near term is that longer term yields keep going up, and not just because
Labour leader keir starmer speaking in kent. We expect to hear a lot of personal stories like that as the leaders get out and about around the country meeting people and learning about their priorities, what they want the politicians to deliver in this General Election. As we have said the Prime Minister there at the Vale Of Glamorgan Craft Brewery in south wales. These are the moments when they will speak with business leaders, with voters, with the electorate, and hear about their priorities. One would assume a visit to a hospital and otherfacilities in the coming weeks. With me as alessia fitzgerald. Lets look at what moments like this are for. This is about the leaders being seen in all the right places. It is a photo opportunity. But it is a chance for them to hear from voters about what they need to deliver. fin them to hear from voters about what they need to deliver. They need to deliver. On the first thin , they need to deliver. On the first thing. When they need to deliver.
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The fed chair today. Plus we have that earnings parade. Netflix surges on sub gains. Tesla, that stock is down. At t, blackstone, american airlines, they are all names that we will be telling you all about. And the ozempic effect. Nestle is looking to offset any future sales impact, now dropping products to accompany weight loss drugs. Lets begin with tesla. Among the biggest s p laggards in the premarket, the company did post a quarterly miss, including weaker than expected Profit Margins due to price cuts. Cybertruck was in focus. This is elon musk talking about it on last nights Earnings Call. I just want to temper expectations for cybertruck. Its a great product, but financially, it will take, i dont know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive capture contributor. Of course, musk did comment on all kinds of things beyond the company itself. Rates, of course. Macro, workfromhome, sort of echoing themes hes had before, david. I remember during our interview in may,
Tenyear yield might be the story, as this is pacing for some new cycle highs yet again. If not the 30year ticking above 5 . 501 on the 30. It seems like it was one of those little raw nerves that the market has had out, exposed for a while. Beyond that, its hard to sort of point to anything, except for a little bit of a mixed reaction to earnings. Earnings themselves seem fine. The real function of earnings season this time is to get a reality check on the 12month forward, you know, 240 in s p projections right now. Its a little too early to get that fully. Aside from that, were kind of still above last weeks lows. Weve been in this very anxious range, back and forth, a lot of macro cross winds. Oil is not great going for up definitely the wrong reasons. Are you surprised to see the market, its down, but its not down that much, given whats happening with the yields right now, and oil, and the world. I have been a little bit surprised, half impressed, certainly the last two days with th