Corporate bonds on track for the best returns in a decade, but how long can the rally continue . We begin with the big issue, markets betting low rates are here to stay in 2020. It is hard to see the yield breakout from here. Bond yields moving sideways. We cant generate any inflation right now. Still attractive but certainly not breaking out. 1. 20 by the end of the year. If we get to 1. 2 on the 10 year, we are looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things have to be go incredibly wrong to get to 1 . Unless the market begins to price in additional cuts, the 10 year, at most, will drop down to the 1. 60 range. The fed will probably not cut again. If there is any weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. The path to least resistance has been lower, and i see no reason to think that will change in 2020. Taylor can we break out of the range set in 2019 . Joining us from new york are collin martin, peter tchir of academy securities, and in pa
Joining us from sunny arizona. Your clients havent done too badly this year. Jeff its been a great year, and what a difference a year makes. Vonnie why is that, jeff . Jeff the reason for that is because this year, we had a lot of very supportive factors pushing the market higher. First and foremost, weve got a very strong and resilient consumer, and that is evidenced Online Retail sales. Next, weve got Central Banks. Central banks have been supportive and accommodative here in the u. S. And overseas. Next, weve got earnings. Earnings are looking like they are going to improve not only in the end of this year, but into next year. Finally, and probably most importantly, shortterm, weve had improvement on the trade front. It looks like we have that phase one trade deal ready in the nottoodistant future. Vonnie you say what a difference a year makes. Obviously, a lot could happen in the coming year as well. What are the greatest risks for 2020 . Jeff the greatest risks we see are policy r
Others. An extraordinary year to look forward to. Thank you so much for being with us. Much to talk about in the next halfhour. I want to talk about your new effort, thinking about immigration and what it means. We must talk about the central bank. Weve got to talk about the markets. You have been the gloom cruise great pinata. Good times, bad times. We cannot possibly go up. Confounded off the gloom of last december, but confounded over one year, five years, 10 years to good and substantial equity returns. When does it end . Abby tom, thank you first of all for having me here for this discussion. Gloom at yearend 2019 in many ways set us up for a good start to 2019 in the markets. One of the things i am concerned about is just how happy everybody is as yearend 2019. I think what is priced into the market right now is an economic scenario that seems to be the most likely. No recession. The economy perking up a little bit. Corporate profits in single digits, maybe higher growth. It is p
To know to stay safe. The white house fires back, President Trump and a his attorneys will not participate in the impeachment hearings this week. Weve got the latest from capitol hill as the first impeachment draft is reviewed and republicans ramp up their calls for adam schiff to testify under oath. Mornings with maria begins right now. The city never sleeps at night. Its time to begin, isnt it. I get a little bit ill admit im just the same as i was. Maria weve got a great show this morning. Joining the conversation, Dagen Mcdowell, pwc partner mitch rochell and James Freeman. Great to see everybody this morning. So here we are, hope everybody had a great thanksgiving. We are now in december, three weeks left, legislatively, for congress. Usmca expected to come to the floor in the next two weeks, youve got china, you had a great op ed this weekend. Thanks. Maria on making mexico pay for doing a deal with trump. Its kind of amazing. People have been living in a cave for the last year.
Lets take a look at what is been helping foment further gains across the asiapacific. That is the futures contract for the s p up to tens, hang seng three tens of 1 . And the nikkei has buoyed a bit. Also the topix doing rather well. We have a cna a tad week. Looking at that as we do. Also the yen, and the boj. 41 day since the boj came in and bought a sizable chunk of stocks in the japanese market. Someat stealth tapering, people are arguing because the yield on the 10 years unchanged. The yield has been lurching lower eight basis points. Weekhas been put less a and see what is going on in regard to the haven stages. The learn not willing to look at and take on risk right now. This is of course after the Election Results or we saw the landslide victory when it comes to democratic camp. She was talking about how she is ready to listen and stands by previous stances on protest demands. People who felt that our government has not handled, deadly the legislative exercise and its aftermath