For some reason, companies laying off large numbers of people (most recently Better, Freedom, Mr. Cooper) make headlines, whereas shouldn’t the unusual, like companies that aren’t laying off anyone or who are hiring, be more newsworthy? There are indeed companies that are not laying off anyone, and in fact are hiring to take advantage of slow times. There is other good news. Despite inflation, elevated mortgage rates, and slowing sales activity, severely limited housing inventory will prevent large home price drops for most of the country next year according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in his 2023 outlook. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low. Some places are experiencing price gains, while some places, most notably in California, are seeing prices pull back… Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008, distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, a
As Brian B. reminds me, “In the New England you can tell the changing of the seasons by the changing color of the leaves. In Florida you can tell the changing of the seasons by the changing colors of the license plates.” Speaking of moves, geography, and distance, if you’re a lender or a vendor, how’s your 2023 travel and entertainment budget shaping up? I figured. The Mortgage Bankers Association believes (some say optimistically) that total mortgage origination volume will decline to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from the $2.26 trillion expected in 2022. The “pie” will shrink, and every lender is striving to increase customer service. Under the category of “Know your clients,” buyers who bought homes in the year from June 2021 to June 2022 moved a median of 50 miles away from their previous residences, a huge increase. Over the preceding five years it was pretty much flat at a median of 15 miles, which was the highest going back to 200
For me, the next ten days includes time in Chicago, the Wisconsin Dells, and Atlanta. It isn’t a scary agenda. At the ready for tonight’s Halloween fun? Polls seem to indicate that the most popular treat is Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, followed by Reese’s Miniatures, Twix, Kit Kat, and Snickers. Regardless of treats being handed out at doorsteps, there are “ticks” in an unfortunate affordable housing situation that is an example of the difficulty of implementing housing programs. About 5,600 people live in the ski town of Vail, Colorado. But during the busy season thousands of people work there, and there aren’t enough nearby places to live for that workforce. Right now there’s an estimated deficit of 6,000 beds for the work force in the county, and in order to address that the ski resort Vail sought to build a project on-site to house 165 employees. The town’s existing population got upset, as many residents don’t wa
In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of the talk is about new products and about cost cutting. Yes, lenders are looking for new products, or help in exploring the viability of rolling something new out. For example, at the Capital Markets Committee meeting Sunday, I spent some time with Susan Brown, CMB, Founder & CEO of CoreSGB which helps lenders roll out construction loan products. In terms of cost cutting, I’ve spoken to a few owners who challenged their department heads to cut their costs 15 percent instead of the usual 10 percent, and brainstorm with others in doing it. We all know that net basis point goals (like aiming for 75 to 105 bps) have pretty much gone away. But if you’re “only” hitting breakeven, then unintended events can bring you to large losses quickly. If a company is seeing operational excessive
While we had news today of the British Prime Minister resigning, yesterday my doctor asked if anyone in my family suffers from mental illness. I replied, "No, we all seem to enjoy it." Suffering from a lack of liquidity is the death knell for lenders and certainly nothing to joke about. Want to know the quickest way to shut your business down? Don’t return your warehouse bank’s phone call. In the secondary markets, if no one is interested in buying the products we’re manufacturing, that isn’t good news. So headlines of stories in the Wall Street Journal like, “Recession Fears Hit Risky Mortgage Debt Amid Default Concerns” are a real problem. (Subscription needed.) Housing and lending, “upstream” and “downstream,” is our focus, and economist Elliot Eisenberg summed things up. “With 30-year mortgage rates steadily climbing and now at 7 percent, it is unsurprising the NAHB Housing Market Index f