2016, that s what s carrying him and i guess senate republican candidates. maybe. in 2018 maybe. but the challenge that we re seeing with his rhetoric is when you look at people like mike kauffman in colorado or tom mcarthur in new jersey, they have both cut ads in which they are being touted for helping one family s adopted daughter not be deported under president trump. that is wild. they re running on pre-existing conditions, protecting parts of the aca that republicans are trying to overturn. mcarthur may have got elected campaigning again. what donald trump is doing in these red, red states is ginning up the base. he s doing the purple states as well. we re seeing republicans in states secretary clinton won in the presidential race, curbelo, with really solid leads going into this last week so it s clear there are republican candidates who have forged their own identity and have the
ability to win without the president. i checked with a republican pollster today who said the lesson from this election is going to be when you see who wins and who loses, those that spent essentially a year worrying about their perception with suburban voters will figure out a way to survive, and those that worried about the trump base because they were weren t with them will pay the price. curbelo is doing everything he can to distance himself from the president. even most recently saying he would threaten to vote against his new trade deal with canada and mexico if it wasn t protecting specialty farms in florida. that s why we see this tale of two midterms. the president and vice president campaigning in red states trying to beat these red state senate democrats, while house republicans are fighting their own fight in the suburbs. steve mcmahon, there is a i think all of us are wondering are voters going to send a message due to the tone?
voters when they go to the polls in a little over three weeks. i m curious about carbella s district. he hasn t totally aligned himself with president trump. he s broken with him when he s disagreed and hasn t fallen in line the way other house republicans have. that district is a district president trump lost by almost 16 points. so that s not a district you want to embrace trump and curbelo is a republican and has voted with republicans far more often than with democrats. i don t think in that distri district well, in the state in general i don t think donald
overperforming, it s in these districts that once upon a time have been fairly reliably republican and a lot of women who have been leaning republican, they are now leaning democrat. i d like to say it s because of great messaging about democrats we re doing but they re leaning as democrat out of repulse about being repulsed out of what they re seeing out of washington and donald trump. so it s the year of the angry suburbanite. well, house republicans are still winning these elections. they are 8-1 in this cycle. districts that trump won by 20. if you look at powing in hillary heavy voter districts with republican congressmen, all of those public polls show kauffman, curbelo, are all doing very, very well. let s remember that a number of republican senators won their states running substantially double digits ahead of donald trump in 2016. all right, guys, i m going to pause it here.
support jim jordan for speaker. being in columbus ohio, ohio state, now they have multiple sports scandals right now, but having to do with jim jordan. let me ask you this. are we learning now, the old axiom used to be the political party that was in power, when they were in trouble, the goal was don t nationalize a race, we can run locally. the only way for these races for these republicans to survive it appears is to nationalize it. i think there s actually kind of a disconnect here. i think that there are districts where you have a higher college educated population, you have a more moderate electorate, things that have traditionally been battlegrounds. curbelo s seat in florida, kauffman in colorado, where the president is not helpful. but those are places where the individual member has done a great job working their district, working their individual issues, making a connection with voters in their own brand and identity. it s the more generic republican seats, seats like thi