Every few times we make some progress and roll it back. It is becoming exhausting. Late february this year, trump did not meet with chinese february, officials and there were press conferences afterwards, and they agreed to have the chinese by a little bit buy a little bit more soybeans. Two days later, trump declared a truce. That never really led to anything. We have been wrong optimistically the entire time. They have had a couple of years to try to come to compromise. What we are talking about now is right where we started 18 months ago or so. Good, a detente but until i see a rollback of , some of the tariffs that went on recently, i have to go with our leading indicators, which are still pointed downwards. Jonathan joining me around the table in new york are our guests george bory, mike purves, and andy charlton. The first question to you, george. Same issues, same people, same countries. Do we get a different outcome . George in terms of trade, i dont think so. Trade is in a per
The aussie market doing ok despite some not great news from the pmi, which we can look at now. Contractiong seeing on the manufacturing side of things. The has helped to bring bulls out for bonds suggesting we see another Interest Rate cut coming through from the reserve bank. Things inso got other play here as well. 10 year yield, three basis points down. Below 1 again. That facility will not be ready to operate fully for months. , after that 20 billion worth of Corporate Tax cuts designed to stimulate the economy. Nifty futures pointing upside as well. Could be adding to that huge gain. Biggest lift up in indian equities in a decade. There we have it at the moment. Now. the renminbi right off by looking at the chinese currency. Theres nothing much happening but that is the story. Or are we looking at Something Else . Guest no, you are right. On the surface they are not big moves today. It is interesting that pboc fixing today. Four pips higher for dollar yuan than friday even though
Report. A bit of a mixed bag. It is consistent with some slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pays. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Not falling off a cliff. Not much of anything to me. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a rate cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Around theoining me table to discuss in a new york are our guests. I want to discuss what changed this week. Nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. Did have some week numbers there, but an on track jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been on this trend for a while, where revisions have been up. It is a weird environment where we are in, where an employment continues to be strong, and the probability of a fed cut winds down slightly, from around 90 to 75 or so. The fed
It is consistent with some slowing. The economy is slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. We are slowly pressing on the break here. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not like a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Definitely not falling off a cliff. Not enough to do anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss here in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. I want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change for you, oksana, given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak ism number there, but an ontrack jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been in this trend for a
People thought it would be. Edward lawrence on what is being teed up for tomorrow. What do you have, edward . Reporter both teams are in their proverbial corners in washington, d. C. Vice premier liu he is getting ready for the meeting to happen tomorrow with the heads of trade delegations. As we said on your show, both parts of agreement, set a timetable for the deal. President donald trump said we come this far. He would like to see a complete full deal finished related to this. Economic advisors on this are mixed we have on one side larry kudlow saying that see what the chinese are offering coming to the table. On one corner Peter Navarro says the president wants a full deal because china needs it more than we do. The Chinese Commerce ministry will not negotiate Going Forward changing their laws. They will handle intellectual property enforcement through administrative regulation what is they have said. Well have to see if u. S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer will agree to t