midterm madness labor day edition of mtp daily. all of the marquee senate races this year are now set. we now know where the biggest battlefields are going to be. democrats need to pick up two senate seats to win control. it s an extraordinarily tough prospect for them. even though it s only two, they re defending a whopping 26 seats compared to the republicans defending just nine and ten of those democratic incoumbents are in states president trump won in 2016. let s dig into where things stand right now. the panel is back. leigh anne caldwell, michael steele, cornell belcher and carrie dann. what s interesting about these senate races is in this gigantic wave year, it is really possible democrats could win 40 to 50 house seats and republicans could pick up two senate seats. yeah. and it s because of the map. republicans are confident that they re going to keep the senate and they might even pick up a seat or two. the confidence level is unbelievable. yeah, it really is. it s
matter, if it does end up mattering? it doesn t unless there s proof of collusion before the midterms. unless there s some report that we know about. even if it does, i think it s a marginal increase in democratic turnout maybe. i think people s are baked. people know what they think about this. i think it is not changing. i think it s baked in but it s also baked in in a way that s not helpful. he s at 44 and it s unchanged. that s not a good thing, right? and this is what i talked about earlier. the base of the republican party sticks around this guy the way they didn t around george bush. his 44 isn t going to move. that s not necessarily a good position. this is where i think it sticks because it s the drip, drip, drip, drip, drip that s already baked in with these suburban women. for what it s worth, by the way, for what it s worth even in the same poll that the president didn t prove, when we asked has the president been honest and truthful about the mueller probe, 56
making chipping away at the red wall out best. michael, in an alternative universe where hillary clinton is president, republicans are wondering if they can get 60 senate seats totally. they were not just red states, these are really, really red states. west virginia, north dakota, missouri now which is leaning more like a dakota than a swing state. and even some of the ones that should be a tighter contest like nelson in florida has the stench of doom about him. this is not a race democrats are going win and they ought to at least be competitive in it. they re going to spend a ton of money to prop him up. i don t think you should write of a him yet. and i think gillum is going to be a potential asset. we have a nice little map here, carrie and mark, this is where democrats have outspent republicans. those states are in blue. where the two parties are the same there in the yellow so indiana, missouri, montana. democrats have outspent the republicans. nevada, north dakota,
the republican nominee against populist democratic ironworker randy bryce. if bryce wins, we will be in blue wave territory. the panel is back. so, carrie, we ve been everybody always asks us give me the one race that s this. it s hard to do one, but we came up with the kentucky 6 and another one would be the des moines seat in iowa, iowa 3. in the past those are the seats that become majority makers. right. those are the first usually the first ones to flip when control flips. kentucky 6 also closer to the east coast, which we ll all be watching that night. it s an early poll close which is why it s an early bellwether. what makes these seats sort of permanent swing? well, in both of these cases you have an urban area, not a huge urban area, kiend of a mix of a small city an suburbs outside of it. democrats are animated by what we are talking about in the first block about they re angry
they are able to keep these democrats from but that doesn t help a state like wisconsin where he does not have a majority. there s not a majority support for donald trump in a state like wisconsin. how do you pick up there? i m convinced if joe donnelly and bill nelson win, democrats have picked up senate seats. if both of them don t win, i don t know how they pick up senate seats. michael, leigh anne, cornell, carrie, you re sticking around. coming up, the midterm forecast with a russia cloud hanging over the white house. hanging over the white house eats at every meal he holds your house in the palm of his hand he s your home and auto man big jim, he s got you covered great big jim, there ain t no other -so, this is covered, right? -yes, ma am. take care of it for you right now. giddyup! hi! this is jamie. we need some help.